well, i estimate that nintendo should be able to make $3-4bln next fiscal year. maybe top out at $4.5 bln one of the upcoming years. that seems reasonable.
well, it's market cap is around $80 bln already.
which means... barring major news, we're close to the top, using a p/e of 20 as guidance.
for comparison purposes, Disney has a market cap of $70 bln. apple $145 bln.
apple keep growing because of one new product after another. what new product can nintendo make? the easy answer, mobile phones, cannibalizes sales of DS, and it's no home run.
to keep growing, nintendo really needs to complete its transformation from a pure gaming company to an integrated entertainment provider. by that i mean, things like more Exertainment, Edutainment, Medical-related entertainment (whatever that is), etc. Meaning, they'll need to work closely with other industries.
I don't know--doesn't seem like it's happening. I remember the DS in Japanese schools and WiiFit gaining interest among American fitness centers, but no official indication so far anyway. I don't know if it could actually be that profitable, especially compared to publishing games, but at least that'll be a new source of revenue.
Here's hoping.