well, i'd be more excited if not for the mere 23,000 units of wii sold in japan.

certainly, if this can trend in japan, it can trend in america too. looks like i'll need to adjust the baseline for the wii--to maybe 35,000 units in japan in a normal week, instead of the like 60,000 units i was using previously.

that's a 300k difference every quarter! that's like 10 mln in profits of hardware off the table, and probably 50 mln in profits in software.

i still believe this x'mas is gonna be the biggest ever for nintendo, though. Q2 probably won't be as great as Q1, given slowing sales in both DS and Wii and a tougher exchange rate, so hopefully market doesn't react too unfavorably.

oh well. finally some bad news for nintendo. i have no doubt the wii is gonna win this generation, it's just a matter of how much, and my projections might just be too optimistic, and maybe i'll need to reevaluate.

Here's a link with Cramer discussing the Wii and playing boxing.

http://www.thestreet.com/s/cramer-gets-his-wii-on/video/cramermarketupdates/10381483.html?puc=_tscs

that's the only instant i see him smile :)

I sold 40% of my shares yesterday!  I sold em at $64.90.  I really don't know a damn thing
about investing but... I think now might be the most obvious time to
sell a few shares.  I mean come on!  PSP outselling DS by a huge
amount, Wii sales on the rapid decline in Japan, and the launch of
Halo 3.  All these SHORT TERM conditions SHOULD make Nintendo stock
decline in the SHORT TERM, if the stock market made any sense at all,
which it does not by the way.  And that is why the decline hasn't
happened yet.  But yeah I want out only so I can move this money into
an E*Trade account, change it to YEN, buy a block of 100 TSE shares,
and then FINALLY gain entry into the Nintendo building for the
shareholders meeting in June of 2008.  I hope I can buy back in at a
profit!  Lets see what happens.

I sold half my position today. My gut tells me there will be a market driven pullback. I could be wrong, but I hope to buy my shares back below $60. Once we get closer to earnings, I think there will be another runup.

Wow, we posted at the same time LOL!

Do you guys think there will be a dip after the christmas rise? (late jan, early feb)

Make sure you buy back some before Galaxy/Smash.

Q2 earnings should be out around Oct 25. What happens after that is anybody's guess.

Q3 earnings will be out around Jan 25, so if the holidays are good I wouldn't expect a dip. I certainly have no confidence in forecasting short term performance that far out.

Drat, I wish I had held. Oh well, better to get out too early than too late I guess. How high can this market go?