yen: i've mentioned this about 2-3 weeks ago; the carry trade is bound to unwind. 4 yen in 2 days is clear sign it's getting unwound. the yen is generally considered to be one of the most undervalued currencies. 110 is definitely a possibility; in addition, the risk aversion is back in FULL SWING. unwinding, credit crunch, rate spread--this downward adjustment is the REAL DEAL.
there's not much the japanese gov't can do about the yen. the interest rate is practically nil at 0.25%, and again appears like there's deflationary pressures. intervention only goes so far, and i'm not even sure if G7 wants it to stay weak to begin with. fundamentally, the US dollar is believed by most to be overvalued, and most think it's the only way to fix the humengous trade deficit; it's more likely the US dollar is gonna go down than up.
the yen is pretty much the only bad thing that can happen to nintendo. the japanese economy still appears fundamentally weak, but the difference is that now investors think that the US economy is weakening, with a rising probability of a rate cut in next month's fed meeting. brace for 110 yen.
waiting would be prudent. my take is that the market is gonna be bear for a while. however, it's also true that you find your bargains when the market is bear. you don't want to catch a falling knife, but it's also the most lucrative. ultimately, NOBODY knows how the market is gonna behave, it's just that in the long run, you're almost sure to come out winners.
the Wii is an epidemic.







