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Forums - Nintendo - The official NTDOY/Nintendo discussion thread

yen: i've mentioned this about 2-3 weeks ago; the carry trade is bound to unwind. 4 yen in 2 days is clear sign it's getting unwound. the yen is generally considered to be one of the most undervalued currencies. 110 is definitely a possibility; in addition, the risk aversion is back in FULL SWING. unwinding, credit crunch, rate spread--this downward adjustment is the REAL DEAL.

there's not much the japanese gov't can do about the yen. the interest rate is practically nil at 0.25%, and again appears like there's deflationary pressures. intervention only goes so far, and i'm not even sure if G7 wants it to stay weak to begin with. fundamentally, the US dollar is believed by most to be overvalued, and most think it's the only way to fix the humengous trade deficit; it's more likely the US dollar is gonna go down than up.

the yen is pretty much the only bad thing that can happen to nintendo. the japanese economy still appears fundamentally weak, but the difference is that now investors think that the US economy is weakening, with a rising probability of a rate cut in next month's fed meeting. brace for 110 yen.

waiting would be prudent. my take is that the market is gonna be bear for a while. however, it's also true that you find your bargains when the market is bear. you don't want to catch a falling knife, but it's also the most lucrative. ultimately, NOBODY knows how the market is gonna behave, it's just that in the long run, you're almost sure to come out winners.



the Wii is an epidemic.

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the USD will continue to fall into oblivion



also... with its hoard of cash, nintendo might have to take a huge charge (on the order of $600 mln US) next quarter if the yen stays weak. i don't know how they do accounting though... so can't speak more.

nintendo is part of the carry trade to begin with. maybe they've unwound some of their positions, though that's unlikely. there's a chance you can get nintendo at a really good price... after 2Q results if they do take a charge. i don't know if that's how people do accounting though... anybody?



the Wii is an epidemic.

mr-money said:
the USD will continue to fall into oblivion

 where are you from, iran?



the Wii is an epidemic.

Ouch, we're getting murdered today! Oh well, easy come, easy go!

We're almost at the limit! At some point this has to be oversold...

You were really right about the yen. I never expected a company with incredible growth and fundamentals to get hit so hard. AFAIK, nothing about the company or its prospects has changed. I guess Nintendo stock is a lot more liquid than others at the moment.  



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^^ back up now to over 56.  I got in at 54.



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I don't want to alarm you, but it will drop under 54 tomorrow. I'm guessing it will be at around $51 or thereabouts. The Japanese market is sinking like a stone. The Bank of Japan better do something or they are going to face some angry mobs.



FishyJoe said:
This market is nuts. I'd rather just see everything tank instead of this up and down every day. I've decided not to buy a house this year, so I have a lot of cash but this craziness scares me.

I'll take some of your fear away. I accept cash, cheques and money order. 



Why did i buy it at 60? kills self



If it's any consolation, Nintendo is still the same company with the same prospects for success. The stock is taking a beating at the moment, but history tells us that investments in good businesses pay off in the long run.