Not that it means that much, but people should be aware that there was a broad breaking of street date in Australia, it was out on the 21st.

What comparison would you prefer, then?

We can make about 100 comparisons between Fable 2 data and any other X360 game available. I'd love to dive into the metrics to get a more viable model for Fable 2 sales.

Nevertheless, with the data we have available - a 500,000 opening week for Fable 2 in North America looks likely, if not certain. Time will tell if I'm wrong, but the fact is....I don't think I ever have been by using MGC data :-p

I was right about every game hitting in the MGC Top-5 being a million seller, and called each game before VGC or NPD published their data: Mercs WIF, Battlefield BC, SCIV, SW:TFU, Saints Row 2, and now Fable 2 are all games on MGC that have tracked well, and are all destined to be million sellers. Out of that list, only SW:TFU, SR2 and F2 have ever shown peak numbers to define them higher than the others.

In the case of SW:TFU, it hit 1m in 5 short weeks. In SR2's case, it's going to hit over 400,000 units week-1. Yet despite Saints Rows' feats (400k o/w), Fable 2 is crushing it like a tomato can: More people own and are playing Fable 2 right now than the combined userbase of Saints Row 2. That should speak volumes for what the title will offer.

And FYI: SR2 is a great comparison because it has extensive online multiplayer. Yet despite that, SR2 had a max concurrent userbase of 6,000 users/day on 360V. And that was 5 days into it's launch - - - - Fable 2 on Day-1 doubled that number, and that was without European sales data. Fable 2 could hit 18,000-20,000 concurrent daily users which would be above every single Xbox 360 game other than GTAIV and Halo 3. That would tell me, in my analysis, that Fable 2 is destined to hit Madden-esque numbers or better.

Let Mrstick's prediction be known: 850k or more week 1. Call me on it if I'm wrong and NPD doesn't validate my claims :)

mrstickball
I love your numbers dude.
NPD is officially pawned
And i'm really serious. You're doing a great job. And Fable II is doing a great job too. I expect fromit great and long lasting legs. What do you think?

Numbers on MGC have risen to 71,300, should see a big boost tomorrow being released in Europe. If numbers reach over 100K on MGC what does that translate into potential sales?

I've been to a few stores in Australia and their copies of fable 2 are selling pretty quickly. Its anecdotal and shouldn't be taken and a proper representation of the sales but I see nothing to doubt what mrstickball has said.

@seece, is MGC all 360 owners who are on live or is it something you need an actual account for?

If it is all 360 owners who are on xbox live then it seems quite low as i am expecting 1st week sales of 800k-1m based on the fact there has been no great rpg titles released for a while!

Good for Fable.

It's a good game.

Interesting, and I have actually taken a look at these figures myself to try and guestimate, but the comparison really helps. Of course there is the fact that Fable is a more hardcore game, so you would expect a higher percentage of users to be on MGC (Gears and Halo 3 have the same number of users) than something like TFU

Stickball, you could check Halo 3's numbers on MGC and then go to Bungie.net to see the actual number and then try and estimate Fable 2's actual number based on those percentages. Wouldn't be perfect, but it might offer some more information.

MorgZ - MGC data isn't anywhere near 100% of the Live userbase. The data set (the one that has 60,000-70,000 weekly users for Fable) only has 2.3 million XBL users, which is around 15% of the entire XBL userbase.

seece - A good ratio of MGC users to sales should be no less than 6 to 1. So if Fable 2 hits 100k users this week (which it'll greatly exceed that), multiply the MGC user count by 6 and you should get a good ballpark number.

Jaggedsac - It's kind of hard to compare MGC numbers (which are aggregated for the entire week) to Bungie's numbers which are aggregated every 24 hours.

Having said that, 360voice may be a better/closer match:

Halo 3 (360Voice.com): 4,537 Users Yesterday
Fable 2 (360Voice.com): 11,447 Users Yesterday
Halo 3 (Bungie.net): 596,294 Users in the Past 24 Hours

Still, I don't think it's the best comparison, since that'd put Fable 2 numbers over 1.5 million sales in 2 days which is a bit high. But it's still worth considering. MGC numbers have Halo 3 at around 100,000 unique users for the week (and I wish that Bungie had concurrent weekly users).