| Lafiel said: uhm... I don't understand why you compare the voice data of a game with online multiplayer with one without any multiplayer though |
What comparison would you prefer, then?
We can make about 100 comparisons between Fable 2 data and any other X360 game available. I'd love to dive into the metrics to get a more viable model for Fable 2 sales.
Nevertheless, with the data we have available - a 500,000 opening week for Fable 2 in North America looks likely, if not certain. Time will tell if I'm wrong, but the fact is....I don't think I ever have been by using MGC data :-p
I was right about every game hitting in the MGC Top-5 being a million seller, and called each game before VGC or NPD published their data: Mercs WIF, Battlefield BC, SCIV, SW:TFU, Saints Row 2, and now Fable 2 are all games on MGC that have tracked well, and are all destined to be million sellers. Out of that list, only SW:TFU, SR2 and F2 have ever shown peak numbers to define them higher than the others.
In the case of SW:TFU, it hit 1m in 5 short weeks. In SR2's case, it's going to hit over 400,000 units week-1. Yet despite Saints Rows' feats (400k o/w), Fable 2 is crushing it like a tomato can: More people own and are playing Fable 2 right now than the combined userbase of Saints Row 2. That should speak volumes for what the title will offer.
And FYI: SR2 is a great comparison because it has extensive online multiplayer. Yet despite that, SR2 had a max concurrent userbase of 6,000 users/day on 360V. And that was 5 days into it's launch - - - - Fable 2 on Day-1 doubled that number, and that was without European sales data. Fable 2 could hit 18,000-20,000 concurrent daily users which would be above every single Xbox 360 game other than GTAIV and Halo 3. That would tell me, in my analysis, that Fable 2 is destined to hit Madden-esque numbers or better.
Let Mrstick's prediction be known: 850k or more week 1. Call me on it if I'm wrong and NPD doesn't validate my claims :)
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
