I suppose it would also be interesting to look at what the reprocussions would be if , like I predicted, FF and MGS sell half what their best selling PS2 incarnations did, so around 4 & 2.75 million respectively.

Would Square & Konami put sequels to these franchises on PS3? If they did would they go multi-platform? Could we see a DQ situation and have DS add them to it's ranks? Could Wii as the best selling home console be in for some established AAA loving?

I predict that MGS4 will be the last in the series this gen & that FF will go to Wii as going PS3/360 won't improve sales too much as 360 is effectively a non-entity in Japan where the title sells best.

I think it's pretty irrelevant whether the big AAA titles are 1st, 2nd, or 3rd party. Fact is that N64 probably had more exclusive AAA titles out after 18 months (or whenever both FF and MGS release) than PS3 will. GTA4 will help sales but overall due to the price of PS3/360 will be more damaging to Sony than helpful.

As for second-tier games, all systems have a similiar amount coming out so I don't see this as a significant factor in the argument, unless you assume PS3s titles outperform their expectations and 360/Wiis underperform which is possible but highly unlikely. 

And that's why I'm not sure it'll work. The question is just how loyal is the Sony fanbase? They've never really been tested, and it's impossible to say whether they will jump ship to the 360/Wii, pay more than they want for the PS3, or just wait until they can afford it.

Especially considering that a lot of Sony fans' favourite games are from 3rd parties. All I really hear being thrown about in terms of hype for PS3 games are 3rd party projects that could and probably will go to other platforms in the future.

I also think that a lot of the less informed gamers think that MGS, FF, Pro Ev etc. are Sony games and will only release on that platform. I'm sure there will be a lot of 'casuals' scratching their heads when they see GTA4 and DMC sitting on the shelves of the 360 section, Sony has got to hope that when they do they'll have alraedy invested in a PS3.

@Biggerboat,

Then i will be happy that u give me a list of AAA title coming on PS3/Wii/Xbox360 for 2007 and 2008.

How can u predict which will be an AAA title ?

Wiisport ... U knew it was an AAA title before his release ?

and GT5 prologue (not the full version) is coming at the end of the year.

"Brand loyalty is nearly non existent,"

==> I dont think so ...

European people are buying PS3 because of the brand loyalty,
Same for the Japanese people
Of course, Will sell a lot more than PS3,
but if u look at Xbox360 sales rate in Europe or japan ... u understand that brand loyalty is very important.
A new comer, like microsoft, has still some problem to sell his console, particularly out of america.

I'll give it a try. Before I do though bare in mind that:

1) I'm more familiar with Wii's long term lineup than 360/PS3s but hopefully will have enough knowledge to do them justice.

2)I'm just focussing on exclusive games.

3)I'm defining AAA on my predictions of sales (potentially capable of selling 4+ million copies) not quality so a game like MP:Corruption will not be included.

4)Obviously it will be tricky to pin down '08' games as there could well be many unannounced.

Wii - Galaxy, SSBB, Wii Fit, MarioKart Wii, Final FantasyWii(cant recall full name)

360 - Halo, Bioshock, Halo Wars(not sure if '08)

PS3 - MGS4, FFXIII

I suppose a special mention should go to GTAIV as though it is multi it will sell many 360/PS3s and is absent from the Wii lineup, I'll give half a point to both 360's & PS3's totals.

So Wii has 5, 360 has 3.5 & PS3 has 2.5.

Feel free to let me know if I've missed any obvious titles.

The wii may get games like FF, but not the same FF as the 360/PS3 which is fine, most people don't really care if the games go to all systems.

I think what will happen this gen is games will be coming out for the PS3/360 and will sell well, the wii won't get the same games becasue it is impossible for them to get the same graphics, AI, sound and everything else that seperates the PS3/360 from the wii.

The wii will get stripped down versions of some of the PS3/360 games and seperate games that just use the wii-mote.

Then do you care to explain DQ9 going to DS?

I realise that a few of the titles are by no means gauranteed to reach 4 million but I wrote potentially capable so in my opinion Bioshock and FFCC could, in a best case scenario reach this benchmark.

FFCC is looking to be a far more traditional FF game than it's GC installment and if Square invest a reasonable budget I honestly think it could be hot when released. Look at DQ:S, it has completely sold out of it's initial 350k shipment and is by all accounts a pretty poor game. If it can hit a million I think FFCC has a chance at 4 as it is a WW brand and the install base of Wii will be much higher when released.

Bioshock is a bit of a gamble but if lots of 360s are sold tihis Xmas and it gets anywhere near the same following as GoW then again I think it has a chance.

These are just my opinions though and have no more validity than yours. Time will tell!

Also I didn't include GT5 as I don't think it will hit until '09'.