If we look at the sales figures of the best selling installments of the MGS & FF series on PS2 we get MGS2 at 5.56 million & FFX at 7.95 million. Now looking at the sales of MK:DD at 6.6 million & Mario Sunshine at 5.91 million we can see that the 4 franchises are in the same ballpark sales wise and you could even say that GC's were potentially bigger since they sold only marginally less with a much smaller user base.

I chose these 2 GC games because 1) they are 2 of N's big guns and 2) they released at roughly the same point in the GC's lifespan as MSG4 & FFX are expected in PS3's, MK:DD coming out roughly 2 years afer launch and M:Sunshine 10 months.

My question is why will the 2 PS3 games in question save the system when arguably bigger franchises failed to secure the GC's success? Also take into account that the GC also had SSBM out only 2 months after launch and you really have to chllenge the belief that 1 or 2 big games(noteably sequels) can make a significant impact on the success of the hardware and that the overall variety and depth of a console's library is what really decides it's fate. This is probably bad news for PS3 as it is miles behind the 360 in terms of released software and will likely not make up any ground in this department in '07' if ever.

Finally I think we have to look at the cost of the PS3 and how that may hamper the sales of these killer apps. You could say that since the first installments of MGS & FF on PS2 sold upwards of 5 and 7 million respectively that the same will be true for the franchise's debuts on PS3 but we have to ponder whether FFX & MGS2, or MK:DD & Sunshine for that matter, would have achieved those numbers had the price of admittance been 450-900 dollars(think that covers worldwide prices + cost of 1 game) and ownership of an HDTV? I personally think that they would have sold nowhere near what they did and think that MGS4 & FFXIII will be looking at around half of those sales.

In conslusion I think it will take a lot more exclusive content than a handful of big games which may in the end may not stay exclusive. PS3 needs the motherload of exclusive software that will all but eclipse it's competitor's lineups and I can't see this happening as the market conditions just don't support the required level of 3rd party support. Will MGS & FF sell on PS3? definately. Will they sell as much as previous installments? No. Will they sell as many systems as previous installments? No chance. Will they save PS3? Again, no chance.

Do you guys agree?

Two games are never enough to save a system. That´s it.

Look at Nintendos N64, they had Super Mario 64 at launch, maybe the best 3D game ever created at that time. Later there was Zelda: Ocarina of Time, one of the best videogames ever created and the most successful game in the Zelda series.

They had Golden Eye, Banjo Kazooie, another Zelda title, their Mario franchise etc. but it didn´t help the N64 in the end. And all of those tiltes were expected to sell just as much as FF13 and Metal Gear Solid are expected to sell now.

So: no, 2 games are not enough. There are less Killer apps on the PS3 than there were on Gamecube and the Gamecube was much cheaper than the PS3.

And don´t forget: The Wii will be getting the big 3rd party titles in 2008. It´s not the way the Sony fans want it, it is not the Wii will all of a sudden stop getting any games just to help the PS3.

Fact is: The Wii will be number 1 platform for 3rd parties in 2008 and the PS3 will have exactly 2 killer apps in a whole year and lots of multiplatform releases.

Sony can just hope the 360 won´t pick up more in Japan because if that happens, titles like Resident Evil 5, Devil may cry, etc. won´t be "japan exclusive" PS3 games anymore and will sell just as much 360´s as PS3´s.

"""PS3 needs the motherload of exclusive software that will all but eclipse it's competitor's lineups and I can't see this happening as the market conditions just don't support the required level of 3rd party support. """

==> U forget the 1st party exclusive title.

""""So: no, 2 games are not enough""""

==> u forget Lair/HeavenlySword/Unchartred/Ratchet/GT5
and for 2008 : LBP/Killzone2
Wait TGS for more surprise.

"""Will MGS & FF sell on PS3? definately. Will they sell as much as previous installments? No."""

==> since the user base is more restricted for the PS3, it wil be hard.
So I agree.

""" Will they sell as many systems as previous installments? No chance."""

==> I predict that YES if Sony is able to have, a least, a 6 month timed exclusivity.

""" Will they save PS3? Again, no chance."""

==> what an argumentation ... wait and see.

"""Sony can just hope the 360 won´t pick up more in Japan because if that happens, titles like Resident Evil 5, Devil may cry, etc. won´t be "japan exclusive" PS3 games anymore and will sell just as much 360´s as PS3´s. """

==> go see the sales numbers or sales rate
Xbox360 : 3 000
PS3 : 13 000
(wow 4 fold more, not bad)
Japanese people just dont see the Xbox360 (and they dont see a lot the PS3 too in fact ) But if DMC4 and RE 5 are released on the 2 console, Japanese people will buy the ... PS3 version !!
And, I even, think it will be the same for the European gamer ...

MY own question :

Will MGS and FFXIII come to the Wii ?
No chance.
Will MGS and FFXIII come to the Xbox360 ?
No chance for FFXIII, after +6 months for MGS maybe.

1)I agree about N64 having great games yet getting stomped by PS. I think that's why Nintendo fans have such a gloomy outlook on PS3, not because we're needlessly trolling but because we've seen 2 consoles in a row flounder after falling behind early on and never recovering, despite the release of some amazing games later in it's lifespan. I can honestly say that if Wii's and PS3's numbers were reversed at this point I'd be predicting just as negative a performance for N's machine.

2)I'm not so sure Wii will outshine 360 & PS3 in '08' as there are a lot of games still in development for those 2 systems that will be released next year. I think '09' will be the year that the Wii pulls away in this category.

3)I can't see the 360 making it in Japan regardless of a similarily strong lineup to PS3, I think there is just something about the MS brand that doesn't resonate with the public over there and it'll take the company a long time to remedy this.

1) I didn't forget 1st party but didn't specifically mention it because I think the point is pretty irrelevant. If N couldn't save(by save I mean make their console sell anywhere near market leader) their systems with 1st party games then Sony don't have a chance. People can have opinions on many subjects but surely it is accepted as fact that as far as sales go N dwarfs MS's or Sony's 1st party libraries.

2)I didn't forget those games, again I see them as almost irrelevant. Those games could be successful but they're not gonna make big enough numbers to really be of significance just as No More Heroes on Wii or Mass Effect on 360 won't. Don't get me wrong games like this are nice additions to libraries but unless one really outperforms it's expectations they're not gonna move a huge number of systems. The only exception is GT5 but I thought that was coming much later?

3)I have to totally disagree on this one. Thinking logically the same product will sell less the more it costs. Would any game of any gen have performed as well if the entry price was 100+ bucks more? Common sense says no.

Well, the obvious point is:

If you look at Sony's 'Big Guns' few broke 10 Million sales on the most popular console of all time. What this implies is that only a small portion of PS2 owners (say 30 Million) were interested in any of these games at all and a large portion of them were interested in the game because it was an excelent game on a system they already owned.

The reality of the situation is that the number of people who buy a system for a particular game (or a handful of particular games) is pretty small ...

I agree though I'd say some of N's games are exceptions to the rule. M:Sunshine, SSBM & MK:DD all sold to around a third of the install base which is pretty considerable.

I think the Wii is the first system who's biggest system seller is not actually a game but an interface which explains the disparity in sales between it and PS3 despite both consoles having similarily less than stellar libraries.

Libellule: This is just about AAA titles, not such titles as Lair or Uncharted. Those will sell 1m+ maybe but not 5 million or more.

I could easily list 30 Gamecube games as big as Lair. Lair won´t move that many consoles. Mario Smash Football is a title like Lair - it helps the console but what you really need are the big titles.

We should really talk about AAA titles and in 2008 there are just two exclusive AAA games on the PS3, Final Fantasy and Metal Gear.


@biggerboat: I agree the 360 will never be that big in Japan. But demand is still growing and it is not impossible it could reach 2 million units in Japan.

But I really think 2008 will be the year of the Wii in Japan. Just like Nights and Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles will be out this year there should easily be lots of big 3rd party games next year - they are just not announced yet. If a developer started working on a new title just now, they have nearly 18 monhts of developing time for those titles to be ready at Christmas 2008.

I agree about 2 games not being enough to save a console, and yes there is a ton of 1st party games that looks incredible coming to the ps3, but those games aren't something for sure, some can be a real success, even move some hardware, but thay can bomb as well.

 But i guess libellule has a point, RE5, DMC, Silent Hill 5 will be like if they were exclusive in japan, a lot of people follow those games and they will most likely buy a PS3 to play them instead of a 360, so I can see the Ps3 doing much better next year in Japan, maybe not at wii levels, but better. In Europe it will be pretty much even and I really think that most of the multiplatform games will sell much better on the 360 here in America.

The 64s solid 1st and 2nd party games kept it running neck and neck with the PSX for most of its first year. It was only after it became clear that they couldn't keep those titles coming on a regular basis, and that with FF7 the PSX had titles worth having, that the N64 dropped into its distant 2nd place finish.

With the PS3, the hope of big, proven franchise titles like MGS4 and FF13 will be marquee titles that people will want (along with top tier non-exclusives like GTA4, UT3) and get them interested in the PS3, while "second tier" non-franchise titles like Lair, Heavenly Sword and the rest (which may end up being top tier after being released) will prove a healthy enough library to finally justify investing in the system.

That's the plan, anyway. Not sure if it'll work.

As for the Gamecube, thanks to the PSX a new generation of gamers learned that they could live without Mario and friends.

It didn't help that Nintendo played into the hands of "It's for teh kiddez" arguments with a purple lunchpail, cartoon Zelda, and this Mario campaign http://youtube.com/watch?v=0WPteMFkI2k

It didn't help that established franchises were often being asked to not just match but better their predecessors, many of which are considered the best games yet released in their respective series.

Finally the Nintendo games released in the first year largely were not as good as the should have been - Luigi's Mansion, Pikmin (good for a first outing, but not brilliant), and SMS (a very good platformer, but lacking the polish we come to expect from Nintendo). That left SSBM to carry the water, and  that didn't have a huge fanbase yet.