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Forums - Sales Discussion - I've been paying atention to console sales predictions......come on people!

Sqrl on 21 October 2008

 

leo-j said:
Were the "F#ck" did anyone on this site predict 40 million consoles for the WII?

Im telling you more than 70% of the people on this site predicted the wii to sell Nearly 60 million consoles, and at lowest 45 million.

If anything the wii predictions are crazy, some way to low, some way out there(my old prediction included as well).

Also the PS3 can manage to sell 4-5million consoles, it did it last year with very little amount of AAA titiles, and this year it has an amazing line up, why wouldnt it sell 4-5million units?

 

1) Dec '07: Source


 '08 LTD @ End of '08 '09 LTD @ End of '09
8.3M
 24M
 7.8M
 32M
8.7M
 17.1M
 9.2M
 26.3M
22M
 40.5M
 24M
 64.5M
11M
 40.3M
 10M
 50.3M
31M
 94.7M
 28M
 122.6M

Note that the PS3 outperformed my expectations the most so far, but I also gave it huge credit in the first 4 months of the year for doing better than I thought it would (even pointing it out in several articles I wrote), and I also recognized it for the Wii as well in mid-Feb:

"I'm starting to think I may have aimed a bit low given the sales the last few weeks.. hopefully within a month we will have a clear trend we can look at. "

2) April '08: Source

And then in Early April I predicted end of October #'s as this:

Wii: 32.5m-33.5m
PS3: 16.5m-17.5m
360: 21.6m-22.6m

And in the same post predicted Year end totals of:

Wii: 40.1m-41.1m
PS3: 20.7m-21.7m
360: 25.2m-26.2m

And in that I post I even correctly called it when I said:

"Furthermore these numbers are heavily based on some of the slowest gaming months of the year so they are likely low."

This was correct for the Wii & 360 as both are already in the upper part of their range with another 2 weeks of data to come, and relative to those predictions I actually overshot the PS3.

3) May '08: Source

Nintendo revised production numbers and put out 2.4M monthly starting in July

This of course is what started me down the path to rethinking my Wii prediction up to the ~45M that it is today.
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Gnizmo on 21 October 2008
leo-j said:
Were the "F#ck" did anyone on this site predict 40 million consoles for the WII?

Im telling you more than 70% of the people on this site predicted the wii to sell Nearly 60 million consoles, and at lowest 45 million.

If anything the wii predictions are crazy, some way to low, some way out there(my old prediction included as well).

Also the PS3 can manage to sell 4-5million consoles, it did it last year with very little amount of AAA titiles, and this year it has an amazing line up, why wouldnt it sell 4-5million units?

 Can you name even one person who is not John Lucas who predicted 60 million? It is cute how you distort reality to fit whatever point you are trying to make, but you should have at least a handful of facts to try and back it up. Had you gone with 50 million it would have at least been semi-believable.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Oyvoyvoyv on 22 October 2008
TWRoO said:

I'd say that's +2 weeks actually.... a quarter is 13 weeks, and that is a 15 week period.

 

Ahh, sorry. Still, that's probably how he did it.

 

@ Leo-J

Predictions at 41M or less for Wii by people on VGChartz : roughly 890 people. http://www.vgchartz.com/poll/results.php

 

More direct approaches.

The following are made in October 2008.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1322940 41M by end of January, and probably thinks around 1M in January.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1323054

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1323250

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1323273

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=45115

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1323383

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1323521

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1323557

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1325680

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1234008

 

I can find some more if you don't believe me.

 

And of course, the best one.

The belove include Leo-J as quoted, or are made by Leo-J

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1232345

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1232494

 

 

 

 

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

TWRoO on 22 October 2008
seece said:
TWRoO said:

I think what we can gather is that, on average, everyone predicts way too low.

Most of the predictions in that thread were 40m or lower for Wii (I didn't check them all, but only 2 I saw were above 46 million, which is a prediction still within reason now) most were lower than 20m for PS3, with a few giving 22m+... and most 360 predictions were below 24 million.

This is what is in my profile.... the top predictions made in January (a few weeks before that thread) and you can see my editions in May and September (for the record my current prediction is pretty similar to the September one, except add 2.5 million and 1.5 million onto DS ad X360 respectively)
=============================
Prediction for LTD end of 2008 (made in January 2008)
DS: 93 million
Wii: 46 million
PSP: 39 million
360: 23 million
PS3 19 million

Updated prediction (May 2008)
DS: 89 million
Wii: 44 million
PSP: 41 million
360: 24 million
PS3: 21 million

Updated prediction (Sept 2008)
DS: 94 million
Wii: 45 million
PSP: 44 million
360: 25 million
PS3: 21 million
==============================

As you can see, I have had to update X360 each time, and the same for PSP but with larger numbers... The DS was revised down then back up due to the Japan slowdown, and then my realisation that Europe has held up Japan's slack.... My Wii prediction went down and up too, though stayed similar enough to be consistant. And my PS3 prediction was initially too low, but rectifyed in May.

 

Do you still agree with those predictions?

As I said, I am still in agreement with them except DS and X360, for which I would add 2.5 and 1.5 million to.

So current projection:
DS: 96.5 million
Wii: 45 million
PSP: 44 million (actually I suspect I could add .5 million to this perhaps)
360: 26.5 million
PS3: 21 million