I'm just saying that this situation, while similar in the respect you mention perhaps, is far different than any previous generation.

The 3DO was $700, btw.  The $560 that the Neo Geo debuted was a lot more back then if you adjust for inflation.

http://curmudgeongamer.com/2006/05/history-of-console-prices-or-500-aint.html

Anyway, we agree on graphics although I never had those other systems so I'll take your word for it considering those are the 2 most expensive console launches ever. 

You forget the CDi, the 700 dollar Wii of its time.  Tried to skate with non-game games and some silly Mario/Zelda abominations. 

Also it's funny how the 3DO did the whole, "we are a highend home entertainment device, not just games."  If Sony didn't have the incredible first party development house they have, it would have followed the 3DO path to a teeth.

Wow. Troll troll bait bait troll troll bait bait bait Holy crap. I once got banned for baiting. I havent seen a single warning in here. And I assure you, I didnt bait HALF as bad as quite a few of the posts in here.

Ok, and on topic. Your crazy if you think the PS3 will sell less than 5million by the end of 2007.

You're wrong because you're ignoring two things. Holiday sales boost is very big and the PS3 has had 3 exclusives released on it so far in the US in total.

In the next 5 months, it's getting like 13 or so exclusives so games + holidays will boost sales.

Add to that the price cut (even if it is temporary which I don't think it will be) and you got yourself a PS3 that should easily reach 7-8 million worldwide if not more by the end of this year.

Next year definitely looks to be a bigger year for the PS3 with more price cutting and two huge franchises coming in the form of FF XIII and MGS 4. Also, Killzone is going to be pushed by Sony a lot and if it turns out as good as is hoped then that will be a big seller as well, specifically in the US.

Everyone always says every generation is different. The 3D0, for example, had for more economic muscle behind it than the PS3 does. I still remember my best friend (who had a Neo Geo) telling me how everyone would buy one once the price went down. Except the sales pickup never happened. The CD-i was in the same boat.

Again, for emphasis: everyone always says every generation is different than the last -- and they're right, they're never the same. You can always come up with reasons why the underdog will come back and win it in the end, but in reality the underdog has never come back: not once, and none has even made it close. That doesn't mean it can't happen, windbane, nor does it make the underdog a bad console: I'm just saying (as I always have) that it's very unlikely, and as the weeks go by, the likelyhood continues to decrease.

But again, I was just talking about graphics! I agree, there are differences between these three previously mentioned consoles.

Edit: and thanks for the 3D0 info. I always thought it debuted at 600!  

 That can be applied to the industry, Sony has been killing Nintendo for over a decade theres no way the under dog nintedo will win.  Wii is like a flash-in-the-pan athlete that has one or two unbelievable seasons then totally dissepears into nothing.

He's been warned in other threads.  He'll be red-worded soon enough.

Except history has already shown us -- multiple times -- that the leadshiper baton can change hands at generational leaps. The Atari was eventually out moded by the NES, and we saw a leadership change from Nintendo to Sony at the N64/PS1 level. So you are incorrect, your theory does not apply. What has never happened is a leadership change mid-generation, when one console has significant momentum and the others do not. And that's completely logical: once one system is selling well, other people want that system, and developers begin to make games for that system, which drive more sales, and so forth. That's logical.

The slate is effectively wiped clean every 5 years: everyone has an install base of 0, no one has momentum.  

Ugh, can we get back on topic? I don't want to spiral downward in to another off-topic flame.

Again, I completely agree that the PS3 will sell 5.5 million units by end of year, and almost certainly more than that.  

Why is an average misleading? the launch obviously was higher than the following months but The holiday this year will be much large in terms of sales than launch sales were. How can you not include every month the PS3 sold into an average? I suppose you just want to take the bad months and average those? An Average by nature is Not misleading it is very clear.

There is no way PS3 does not sell over 5 million this year. It's 100 dollars cheaper than last year and Quality games are coming now. While I am not knocking Nintendo's IP's they are certainly not what everybody wants. If "everyone" Loved metroid/Mario/Zelda wouldn't the gamecube have sold more.

I always hear about how the Bluray-HD-DVD war is far from over on this site. Mainly becase so many more people still use DVD's and have not made the switch. The same is true for the console war thus far The Wii 360 and PS3 totals are about 22 million sold......The PS2 alone has 125million sold. It is very clear that the vast majority of PS2 owners have not gone next gen yet. I think a good majority of PS2 owners want a PS3 but price is an issue. I can not think of any way Sony went terribly wrong last gen to have more than half the base jump to another brand