I don't think the PS3 can hit middle-high 5 mil consoles by the end of the year....

[Bodhesatva]

AllAll said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone always says every generation is different. The 3D0, for example, had for more economic muscle behind it than the PS3 does. I still remember my best friend (who had a Neo Geo) telling me how everyone would buy one once the price went down. Except the sales pickup never happened. The CD-i was in the same boat.

Again, for emphasis: everyone always says every generation is different than the last -- and they're right, they're never the same. You can always come up with reasons why the underdog will come back and win it in the end, but in reality the underdog has never come back: not once, and none has even made it close. That doesn't mean it can't happen, windbane, nor does it make the underdog a bad console: I'm just saying (as I always have) that it's very unlikely, and as the weeks go by, the likelyhood continues to decrease.

That can be applied to the industry, Sony has been killing Nintendo for over a decade theres no way the under dog nintedo will win. Wii is like a flash-in-the-pan athlete that has one or two unbelievable seasons then totally dissepears into nothing.

Except history has already shown us -- multiple times -- that the leadshiper baton can change hands at generational leaps. The Atari was eventually out moded by the NES, and we saw a leadership change from Nintendo to Sony at the N64/PS1 level. So you are incorrect, your theory does not apply. What has never happened is a leadership change mid-generation, when one console has significant momentum and the others do not. And that's completely logical: once one system is selling well, other people want that system, and developers begin to make games for that system, which drive more sales, and so forth. That's logical.

The slate is effectively wiped clean every 5 years: everyone has an install base of 0, no one has momentum.