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Forums - Sony Discussion - I don't think the PS3 can hit middle-high 5 mil consoles by the end of the year....

Interesting patterns to note:

1. Market dominance tends to last two generations. (This one has already been pointed out)
Generations 1 and 2 belonged to Atari
Generations 3 and 4 belonged to Nintendo
Generations 5 and 6 belonged to Sony
Who will be the king of this decade? (2007-2017)

2. Companies tend to crash on their third consoles.
Atari: Atari 2600/5200, Atari 7800, Atari Jaguar (crash)
Nintendo: NES, SNES, Nintendo 64 (crash)
Sega: Genesis/CD/32X, Saturn, Dreamcast (crash)
Sony: PlayStation, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3 (crash?)
Microsoft: Xbox, Xbox 360, ...so they don't have a third out yet.  If they ever lose their American audience, even for a second, they're likely to crash as well.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

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MGS couldn't sell 1 million on the PS2 I don't see how you think it could on the PS3. I think it was around 800k.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

@Witeout:
Sony might crash but they wont crash has hard as Nintendo did from King to peasant in a matter of monthes Sony might go King to PrimeMinister but not all the way down the ladder they still have alot going for them.Well 3rd console crashes might be true but MS crashed on their first console and looking set up to crash on their 2nd as well when this gen finishes in about 6-8 years mabe 4-6 years for MS.

@johnsobas:
Because Kojima has put his heart,soul and blood into this game and him,Sony and Konami have been announcing it and hyping it whenever possible and like FFXIII it is going back to how it used to be when it got all the fans.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

mitsuhide: I wouldn't be so sure... Honestly, this situation is looking pretty similar to when Sony stole Nintendo's thunder ten years ago. No one but Sony thought Nintendo would ever abdicate the throne. But lo and behold, Sony took over in a very fundamental way. It is a possibility, don't be so quick to rule it out.

Also, be wary of any time a developer claims to be "going back to our roots" and such. Sega promises that all the time. I love them to death, but they lie through their teeth every time.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

The NEs dominated entirely in Japan and USA ,but not worlwide .In Europe the Sega Master System was more popular ,and our gaming computers (Sinclair Spectrum ,Commodore C64 ,Amstrad CPC ) were more popular .In Japan ,even ,they had to share the success with the MSX computers from where most of the Nes "classics "truly come .

In the 16 bit era the Megadrive/Genesis did hold its own .In Japan it was total ownage from the Snes ,although there was also the very successful Pc-Engine .But in Europe Megadrive and Snes were even until the last days when the launch of the Saturn killed the Megadrive while the delay of the N64 gave the Snes one more christmas .In NA the Snes came out tops finally but by a small margin .



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johnsobas said:
MGS couldn't sell 1 million on the PS2 I don't see how you think it could on the PS3. I think it was around 800k.

Yes, it is quite funny how no MGS game has sold 1 million in Japan, especially on a console with a far greater userbase, and somehow MGS will sell its best on the console with a very small userbase. I think some people fail to realize what types of games do the best in the Japanese market. MGS is an extremly westernized game.



To cash in my CC rewards points for $300 in Circuit City gift cards to purchase a 360 or not: That is the question.

I am not ruling it out its just that when the GC came out it had all its big hits in the first year sold well against the PS2 and yet then the sales completly went if it still sells like it is now in 1 year i will say that Sony has been knocked over and is in a good 2nd place.
I cant see something that has a 33% failure rate a franchise that made it is going to end(Halo) it couldnt get up to 15million in the first year with practically no competition and is selling worse then PS2 STILL after the PS3 has came out and MS still refuses to adress the problems properly.A price drop wont help the 360 like MS are hoping it would and I think Halo was a flash in the pan app and Halo3 Beta was reviewed badly and doesnt look much better then Halo2.MS needs to leave console gaming and soon they brought nothing to the industry and dont say Live because Sega did that with the Dreamcast and Seganet.Look at a PS2 and 360 controller and apart from the colour they are practically the same MS copied the design and changed it slightly.
Sony even if knocked from the throne will still make consoles after the PS3 and still have great games and Sony has 1st party franchise that can stand up to Nintendos anyday and MS has PGR,Forza,Fable and Halo there not pushing the boat out i.e.LittleBigPlanet.Viva Pinata was a failed attempt to get the casual/family gamer which Nintendo has successfully done.
Most of the people that are buying the Wii are either GC owners or NEW gamers i.e.the people that bought a PS2 in 04 and 05 because it was cheap and there were a few games that everyone said were great.
Someone said that Nintendo released the first ever console in either this thread or another called the Odyssey i would just like to correct them that console was made by Magnorox a company that became famous for its speakers and is now owned by Philips go on Wikipedia if you dont believe me.Also it wasnt the first console the very first console was the Atari PONG machine.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

mitsuhide said:
1million for Japan a country smaller than the UK yep thats pretty good.

You having a laugh, there is about 60 million of us in the UK, and there is almost twice that, im sure, of the little fella's running around in Japan.

 



JamieB said:
mitsuhide said:
1million for Japan a country smaller than the UK yep thats pretty good.

You having a laugh, there is about 60 million of us in the UK, and there is almost twice that, im sure, of the little fella's running around in Japan.

 


In this age of digital information and the internet, how hard can it be to look this up guys?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan 

127 million for Japan.



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Thanks for correcting me.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)