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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - When Will the Wii Surpass the PSP?

Sky Render on 17 October 2008

I do have numbers, yes. Mostly projections based off of 2007 sales, month-by-month. Most of them show the Wii passing the PSP with about 50% likelihood by the end of the year (the projections are in the format of min/max sales for the year).



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

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coasterlove on 17 October 2008

Well to come out with my prediction, I didn't pull out the calculator or anything but I think the Wii will easily be above 40 million by the end of the year and I'd guess 42 million. I don't think the PSP is going to do extremely well and will only move a two to three million in that time. So I figured the end of Christmas or the year or very shortly after, figure the beginning of January.



I'll come up with something better eventually...

thekitchensink on 17 October 2008

Well, I would hope that EVERYONE on this SALES website would be capable of some sort of reasonable prediction...

lol



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frybread on 17 October 2008
Sky Render said:
I do have numbers, yes. Mostly projections based off of 2007 sales, month-by-month. Most of them show the Wii passing the PSP with about 50% likelihood by the end of the year (the projections are in the format of min/max sales for the year).

 

 Cool, and does that account for Nintendo's reported 50% supply increase?



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peachbuggy on 17 October 2008

Hard to predict. The psp is a moving target. I suppose i would say jan or feb but that's just a guess. Is the snes the next target console wise? That would probably be a bit easier to predict.



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TWRoO on 17 October 2008
Sky Render said:
I do have numbers, yes. Mostly projections based off of 2007 sales, month-by-month. Most of them show the Wii passing the PSP with about 50% likelihood by the end of the year (the projections are in the format of min/max sales for the year).

I agree with this.... my profile has numbers much to that effect,  except I was being a little pessimistic with the PSP (In my profile it currently says the year will end with 44 million PSP and 45 million Wii)

 



c0rd on 17 October 2008
frybread said:
Is everyone just pulling dates out of their ass, or do we have a serious number cruncher in here?

Here's my lazy way of doing it, if you're interested. Probably not the best way to do things, but better than nothing.

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Jan 2007 to 06th Oct 2007:

Console PSP
Total
6,992,089

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Jan 2008 to 11th Oct 2008:

Console PSP
Total
8,792,620

(YoY up ~25%)

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 13th Oct 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:

Console PSP
Total
4,547,978

(^ * 1.25 -> puts PSP at 5.7mil for holidays - about 44.7mil)

 

Will the Wii hit 44.7mil by the end of the year? It may, tough call. It'll definitely happen before the end of January though.



Sky Render on 17 October 2008

The projections don't work like that, frybread. They're based on historical sales trend ranges. This is why the results themselves are also ranges instead of precise numbers, and why you can generate a probability figure from them.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

Dgc1808 on 17 October 2008

By the end of this Month. WiiMusic.


13M consoles sold this month for the Wii.....


THis is clearly a Joke....



4 ≈ One

TWRoO on 17 October 2008
c0rd said:
frybread said:
Is everyone just pulling dates out of their ass, or do we have a serious number cruncher in here?

Here's my lazy way of doing it, if you're interested. Probably not the best way to do things, but better than nothing.

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Jan 2007 to 06th Oct 2007:

Console PSP
Total
6,992,089

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Jan 2008 to 11th Oct 2008:

Console PSP
Total
8,792,620

(YoY up ~25%)

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 13th Oct 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:

Console PSP
Total
4,547,978

(^ * 1.25 -> puts PSP at 5.7mil for holidays - about 44.7mil)

 

Will the Wii hit 44.7mil by the end of the year? It may, tough call. It'll definitely happen before the end of January though.

That is a good and simpl way of doing it as long as you:

1: don't add a week for 2008 (you should have stopped at the 4th October)

2: Make sure to think about any big sales affecting events during any periods.... for instance the PSP 2000 was released late into the 1st set of numbers, which would mostly bump up the 3rd set of numbers and thus increase your multiplier.
Also the PSP 2000 effect continued into 2008, and with MHF2 in Japan bumped up sales quite a bit for the middle set, again increasing the multiplier.

So the question is, will PSP 3000 have a similar effect that the 2000 did, I am unsure it will manage it given it has only been 1 year.