When Will the Wii Surpass the PSP?

[TWRoO]

c0rd said:

frybread said:
Is everyone just pulling dates out of their ass, or do we have a serious number cruncher in here?

Here's my lazy way of doing it, if you're interested. Probably not the best way to do things, but better than nothing.

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Jan 2007 to 06th Oct 2007:

Console	PSP
Total	6,992,089

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Jan 2008 to 11th Oct 2008:

Console	PSP
Total	8,792,620

(YoY up ~25%)

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 13th Oct 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:

Console	PSP
Total	4,547,978

(^ * 1.25 -> puts PSP at 5.7mil for holidays - about 44.7mil)

 

Will the Wii hit 44.7mil by the end of the year? It may, tough call. It'll definitely happen before the end of January though.

That is a good and simpl way of doing it as long as you:

1: don't add a week for 2008 (you should have stopped at the 4th October)

2: Make sure to think about any big sales affecting events during any periods.... for instance the PSP 2000 was released late into the 1st set of numbers, which would mostly bump up the 3rd set of numbers and thus increase your multiplier.
Also the PSP 2000 effect continued into 2008, and with MHF2 in Japan bumped up sales quite a bit for the middle set, again increasing the multiplier.

So the question is, will PSP 3000 have a similar effect that the 2000 did, I am unsure it will manage it given it has only been 1 year.