When doing some of these predictions, consider that Mario Sunshine did 350,000 units in 10 days.  http://cube.ign.com/articles/370/370119p1.html

September 5, 2002 - Nintendo of America today announced that in its first 10 days on the market, its 3D platformer Super Mario Sunshine has sold through upward of 350,000 units. The title has already earned a spot as one of the Top 15 best selling games of this year, according to the company.

Super Mario Sunshine follows Nintendo's mascot plumber on an all-new 3D platforming adventure. After being framed for a crime he didn't commit, Mario must clean up a polluted island using a water-spray gadget mounted on his back. The game has earned high marks from the majority of specialized and mainstream press for its tight play mechanics, big worlds and pretty visuals.

"This launch is historic -- promising to break longstanding records," said Peter MacDougall, executive vice president, sales and marketing, Nintendo of America. "So far, sales rates for Super Mario Sunshine are running 36 percent ahead of even Super Mario 64 six years ago -- and that game went on to sell more than 10 million units worldwide (Note: Super Mario Sunshine however, never got to anywhere near 10 million)."

Nintendo pointed out that Super Mario Sunshine's opening was significantly larger from a sales standpoint then either Halo for Xbox or Grand Theft Auto 3 for PlayStation 2. The firm also noted that retailers across the US have been reporting on average a 50 percent jump in GameCube hardware sales, sometimes double that, since Mario's debut  (Gamecube still sold under 200,000 units in August 2002 by NPD - Sunshine launch month - and September - when the game had a full month to boost sales).

A great start for sure. It will be interesting to see, though, if Super Mario Sunshine will have the staying power of Halo or GTA3 one month from now.

More as it develops.

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In terms of predicting for this cycle, for Super Mario Galaxy consider that:

a) Sunshine had a user base of like 2.15 million in the USA when it launched.

b) Wii in the USA was at 2.8 million in the USA through May - it launches in November - when the Wii userbase should be at roughly 5 million units in the USA.

That said, I think Galaxy, if reviewed well, and marketed well, should be capable of something like a 20% attach ratio on week one - especially in November.  Even in Japan Sunshine for GC had a 20% attach ratio on week one. 

That said (note I don't always expect the game to sell exactly in between my boundaries for great and awful):

Galaxy - 750,000 million if all goes perfectly,  350,000 if the game is reviewed poorly and/or a blizzard ensnares the eastern seaboard.  Mario games tend to have one huge week - 10-25% of all sales - then drop off to like 1/3 of that level for the next two to three weeks before stabilizing.

Halo 3 - 1.0-1.3 million is what I expect in week one...700,000 would be awful, 1.6 million would be great.

Lair - 150k (lousy), 550k (great)

Bioshock - 100k (lousy), 300k (great)

Metroid Prime 3 - 150k (lousy), 550k (great)

Heavenly Sword - 70k (lousy), 140k (great)

COD 4 (both) - 280k (lousy), 450k (great)

Brawl - 400k (lousy), 600k (great)

GTA (both) - This one is difficult...I'd say there will be 9-9.5 million PS3/360 owners in the USA at launch.  I'm going to go with a 15% attach rate - 1.35 million combined - as great given the price of the consoles.  I'll go with a 5% attach rate - 475,000 as lousy - given the sales of previous GTAs.  I'm expecting it to do right around 1,000,000 units week one.

Blue Dragon - 40k (lousy), 130k (great).  I expect this to get lost in the August madness - Madden, Metroid, Lair, etc.

No point in guessing since you wont be able to confirm anything be it right or wrong.

Unless there are daily sales numbers ?

Lair (PS3)   60k/180k

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) 180k/290k

Halo 3 (X360)    800k/1,400k

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360)    250k/400k(combined)

Bioshock (360)  ???

Blue Dragon (360) ???

Mass Effect (360) ???

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii)    300k/500k

Super Smash Brothers (Wii)    ???

Heavenly Sword (PS3)   140k/240k

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360)    900k/1,600k(comb)

The games that are 360 only I just don't follow(other than Halo3) since I have no plans on ever owning one. I made at most a guess about the Wii games. It will be interesting to see these numbers when they come in. Won't Lair be the first one? I might have guessed low on that since many will buy it just for the lack of much else right now.

I'll average them out, or give high/lows for the major ones by everyone.

IMO, I just wanted this so we can all see where everyone stands. Our numbers are just opinions and perceptions of games. They are NOT inclusive of where we feel games will wind up with on sales, just merely an idea on where they might sell first week.

The main reason: Bioshock. Lots of people think it'll bomb (which can arguably be true), but what would a bomb for an IP like that be? The reason I say this, is we've had some great debuts lately. MP8, Forza, GH2, ect have done great, but how can we define greatness with these games?

I won't post my predictions now (ever?), but I have a question for everyone: Why do all of you think Super Mario Galaxy will sell 600000 on its first week only, and then predict Halo 3 will do 1000000 on its first week?

Just that one question. I find it weird, because in another thread people were predicting Galaxy would outsell Halo 3. >_>

Lair (PS3) - 100k / 250k -PS3 owners are thirsty, this will sell well

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) - 200k / 350k -Preorders on this seem really high, scores will be in the 9's

Halo 3 (X360) - 800k / 1,750k -I would have said over 2 mil last year, but the Beta seemed to kill the buzz. Not that it was bad, but it just seemed to remover the mystery, and even fufilled alot of peoples Halo desire.

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360) - 200k / 400k Some estimate are way too high here, while the legs will be long, there are a lot of other good FPS coming out.

Bioshock (360) - 100k / 200k - another one with long legs, I just don't think people really know about this game.

Blue Dragon (360) - 50k / 100k - Eh.

Mass Effect (360) - 100k / 350k - Not enough hype yet.

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) - 400k / 700k - The hype is building steadily, once MP3 comes out it will go through the roof.

Super Smash Brothers (Wii) - 400k / 700k - Ditto.

Heavenly Sword (PS3) - 100k / 450k

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) - 1,000k / 2,000k How many copies can they manufacture. (I am not really looking forward to this, but I am open to some of the story evolution.)


Nintendo has some money stashed away from what I hear. If they really wanted to they could set some records by advertising any of those three games to the point where every one in America will want them; however this isn't a good move for Nintendo because they are going to sell millions of copies anyway, so why over advertise. Same goes for GTA4. Halo on the other hand seems to be over hyped right now, where there has been a bit of a back lash. I think MS should shift gears and promote their other games some more (which they have already started doing, remember e3 '07).

I definitely second the Sources 0.75 trillion (whoops, forgot I was doing trillion not billion) high end estimate for SMG's sales.

Seriously though, as a side note, everyone who has MP3, SMG, SSBB at under 350k realizes that they are expecting Mario Party 8 to outdo them in the first week (it did about 350k in 7 days). Actually, after reviewing first week sales I had to up my estimates. These are mega holiday games, they had better outsell big mid-year games in my opinion.

Lair (PS3) 80k/200k, I have low expectations for Lair but that means it'll be easy to surprise me.

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) 400k/800k, if it doesn't beat MP8 in week 1 there's something wrong.

Halo 3 (X360) 1,800k/2,400k, Halo2 did 2.4 million in one day and with all the hype Halo3 has to do better on a percentage basis to impress.

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360) 600k/1,000k(combined), CoD2 and 3 did fairly well in their first weeks on the 360 alone,~200k with only 4million 360's, and this looks like a sleeper hit and also has a larger install base with which to work.

Bioshock (360) 150k/300k, I don't have high expectations for Bioshock or the next two. I think they'll do better overall than their first week would indicate since they will have so much competition initially.

Blue Dragon (360) 100k/200k

Mass Effect (360) 250k/400k

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 650k/1,000k, It's the best Mario in 10 years, it better sell like crazy.

Super Smash Brothers (Wii) 600k/900k, the sequel to the best selling Gamecube and fighting game had also better sell like crazy.

Heavenly Sword (PS3) 200k/300k, God of War fans seem to be heavily represented amongst the PS3 userbase so that's why my low expectation is a bit higher.

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) 1,200k/1,600k(comb), although I expect it to ultimately outsell Halo3 I think it's sales are a bit more spread out.

well said, albionus

(with respect to RolStoppable) 

Rol, the only issue with SMG and such is that the Wii is just as dependant as the X360 on it's flagship title, there is no difference there.

The big difference, however, is in the nature of both buyers. Halo is more hardcore for it's fanbase (atlest in a % basis), therefore, the fans of the series are more likely to go out and buy it day one, preorder, or week one. SMG's fanbase is very strong, and hardcore, but not as hardcore. Thats why we always see major Mario itenerations sell well into their 2nd and 3rd years. However, to say that the Wii isn't dependant on SMG is to say Nintendo has never depended on Mario, or Zelda.

Case and point: Zelda Twilight princess. For the launch period (Nov-Dec) for the Wii, care to tell me what the attach ratio of Zelda:TP to Wii hardware was? It was OVER 80%. Thats bigger than Wii Sports in Japan. There was even a week or two that Zelda:TP, despite 80% ownership, outsold Wii Sports. Thats huge. Why? It shows the initial purchasers of the Wii were huge N fans, and had there been more shipments of both, Zelda TP would of sold even more than it did first week (around 400k copies and only 450k Wii systems).

I think you guys are in general predicting really low for some of these games.

Lair (PS3) 80k/200k I feel like this game will flunk badly

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) 350k/450k, should be higher than MP8 and close to zelda's supply constrained released.

Halo 3 (X360) 1800k/2500k, Peter Moore said Halo 3 will have the bigesst release in history, so it should be higher than Halo 2.

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360), 300k/500k, looks fantastic and should be able to survive the FPS flood

Bioshock (360) 100k/200k, unfortunately this will probably get lost due to poor advertising to the public

Blue Dragon (360) 50k/120k, I don't see this selling very well. Lost Odyssey seems more suited to the western public.

Mass Effect (360) 300k/500k, easily my GOTY for 360 this year. Should be able to go close to Gears of War first week.

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 450k/650k, Sunshine opened with 350k so this should do more than sunshine and also zelda TP.

Super Smash Brothers (Wii) 500k/700k, I think this is the Wii's killer ap this year.

Heavenly Sword (PS3) 150k/250k, PS3 owners are starved for a game, and this should do moderately well.

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) 800k/1750k, biggest multiplatform game of the year, should be a success on both platforms.