Opening Weeks: What are we anticipating for the Big Games?

[albionus]

I definitely second the Sources 0.75 trillion (whoops, forgot I was doing trillion not billion) high end estimate for SMG's sales.

Seriously though, as a side note, everyone who has MP3, SMG, SSBB at under 350k realizes that they are expecting Mario Party 8 to outdo them in the first week (it did about 350k in 7 days). Actually, after reviewing first week sales I had to up my estimates. These are mega holiday games, they had better outsell big mid-year games in my opinion.

Lair (PS3) 80k/200k, I have low expectations for Lair but that means it'll be easy to surprise me.

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) 400k/800k, if it doesn't beat MP8 in week 1 there's something wrong.

Halo 3 (X360) 1,800k/2,400k, Halo2 did 2.4 million in one day and with all the hype Halo3 has to do better on a percentage basis to impress.

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360) 600k/1,000k(combined), CoD2 and 3 did fairly well in their first weeks on the 360 alone,~200k with only 4million 360's, and this looks like a sleeper hit and also has a larger install base with which to work.

Bioshock (360) 150k/300k, I don't have high expectations for Bioshock or the next two. I think they'll do better overall than their first week would indicate since they will have so much competition initially.

Blue Dragon (360) 100k/200k

Mass Effect (360) 250k/400k

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 650k/1,000k, It's the best Mario in 10 years, it better sell like crazy.

Super Smash Brothers (Wii) 600k/900k, the sequel to the best selling Gamecube and fighting game had also better sell like crazy.

Heavenly Sword (PS3) 200k/300k, God of War fans seem to be heavily represented amongst the PS3 userbase so that's why my low expectation is a bit higher.

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) 1,200k/1,600k(comb), although I expect it to ultimately outsell Halo3 I think it's sales are a bit more spread out.