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Forums - Sony Discussion - I don't see MUCH momentum in PS3 sales even after the price cut

Scruff7 on 19 July 2007
deadhorse said:
leo-j said:
deadhorse said:
leo-j said:
deadhorse said:
leo-j said:
deadhorse said:

I think it's safe to call the PS3 price cut a failure. It's even lower than I predicted. I predicted the Wii would only outsell the PS3 2 to 1 worldwide this week, it outsold it 3 to 1. The PS3 also had all that positive publicity from E3. I've seen endless posts on other PS3 boards saying that all the PS3 needed was a price cut and a few AAA games to dominate the market. Well, it got a price cut and one AAA game(Ninja Gaiden Sigma) which had dissapointing sales.

Anyway, on to my next prediction. I predict Lair will sell less than 50,000 first week and that we'll see very little noticeable increase in sales of the PS3. The anticipation of the game seems to be even less than NGS:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2748

Still, I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will outsell NGS, but not by much.

The next big thing to help the PS3 is the release of Warhawk on August 28. I say it will sell much better and the PS3 sales will get a significant boost, but with the Wii outselling the PS3 3 to 1 even after a price cut it's not going to make a big difference in the long run. I should mention that Metroid Prime 3 is being released the day before. Based on board activity the anticipation for this game is several times more than Warhawk.

The ps3 only had a price cut in North america not World wide, just to clear that out, its not a failure since it outsold the x360 Worldwide even at its strongest area in the U.S.


I know it was NA only, I still expected it to double sales worldwide, which would mean, what, 2.5 times the sales in NA? The NA PS2 price cut did just that.

Why would you think it would double in sales worldwide? If the price cut was in only one region why would that have any effect on the sales on other regions that didnt get the price cut? The sales have increased immensly from what they were a week before the price cut, from about 17,800 to about 41,000 is more than double to me.

 

 

Let's see. If a console sells 3 units in NA, 1 in Japan, and 2 in others, then it sells 9 in NA, 1 in Japan, and 2 in others then that's double the sales worldwide(12 as opposed to 6). Is that too difficult for you to comprehend?

 


I do not comprehend

I notice the diehard PS3 fans on these boards aren't too bright.

 


Did you think it would triple sales in North America? That would outstrip Sony's wildest dreams!

If Sony sold 3 in NA, 1 in Japan and 2 in others (6 overall) and this price drop doubled sales in North America (as Sony predicted), then they would sell 6 in North America, 1 in Japan and 2 in europe (9 overall). thats increased sales by 50% worldwide (which is what happened)

tripling sales in NA would be a bit of an overestimate...



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drkohler on 19 July 2007
deadhorse said:
leo-j said:
deadhorse said:
...

Let's see. If a console sells 3 units in NA, 1 in Japan, and 2 in others, then it sells 9 in NA, 1 in Japan, and 2 in others then that's double the sales worldwide(12 as opposed to 6). Is that too difficult for you to comprehend?


I do not comprehend

I notice the diehard PS3 fans on these boards aren't too bright

Just promise us that once you've grown up, with your mathematical skills shown, never to apply for a job that has anything to do with numbers...

But more to the point of the discussion: I'd not be surprised if the "momentum" in NA mainly came from people ready for HD-DVD. After all, the PS3 is an excellent blu-ray player, and lower price, together with 5 free discs, many may have been swayed to "buy now". If my assumption is correct, then we will see a more or less rapid fall of sales numbers back to almost old heights (or lows, depending on how you look at it).



deadhorse on 19 July 2007
Scruff7 said:

Did you think it would triple sales in North America? That would outstrip Sony's wildest dreams!

If Sony sold 3 in NA, 1 in Japan and 2 in others (6 overall) and this price drop doubled sales in North America (as Sony predicted), then they would sell 6 in North America, 1 in Japan and 2 in europe (9 overall). thats increased sales by 50% worldwide (which is what happened)

tripling sales in NA would be a bit of an overestimate...

 

PS2 sales more than tripled after the price drop, it's not impossible.  Anyway, I didn't look at the numbers for where the PS3 was selling the best, if I had my prediction would have been different.  I assumed the sales order was America > Europe > Japan when this chart http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3®1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3®2=Japan&cons3=PS3®3=America&weekly=1 says that last week it was Europe > America > Japan.  The big problem with my guess was my memory was incorrect, I could have sworn that America had been selling a lot more more PS3s than others. Had the sales in countries been what I thought they were, had the PS3 increased by a higher percentage, and had the Wii sales not gone up by 40,000 units in one week then it could have come close to a 2 to 1 ratio.  If the PS2 sales doubled overall then PS3 ones could.  I wasn't thinking this through that carefully, however, it was just a guess.  Anyway, it was a bad one and I'm deleting my post as a result of it.  Still, the fact that my guess was wrong is worse for the PS3 supporters.  4 to 1 sales ratio to 3 to 1.  I don't call that a comeback for the PS3.  The PS3 was only being outsold by the Wii 2.5 to 1 at one point.



WiteoutKing on 20 July 2007

"Had the sales in countries been what I thought they were, had the PS3 increased by a higher percentage, and had the Wii sales not gone up by 40,000 units in one week then it could have come close to a 2 to 1 ratio."

That's a pretty circular argument. "If these three things that would reduce the ratio happened, the ratio would have been less!"



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Scruff7 on 20 July 2007
deadhorse said:
Scruff7 said:

Did you think it would triple sales in North America? That would outstrip Sony's wildest dreams!

If Sony sold 3 in NA, 1 in Japan and 2 in others (6 overall) and this price drop doubled sales in North America (as Sony predicted), then they would sell 6 in North America, 1 in Japan and 2 in europe (9 overall). thats increased sales by 50% worldwide (which is what happened)

tripling sales in NA would be a bit of an overestimate...

 

PS2 sales more than tripled after the price drop, it's not impossible.  Anyway, I didn't look at the numbers for where the PS3 was selling the best, if I had my prediction would have been different.  I assumed the sales order was America > Europe > Japan when this chart http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3®1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3®2=Japan&cons3=PS3®3=America&weekly=1 says that last week it was Europe > America > Japan.  The big problem with my guess was my memory was incorrect, I could have sworn that America had been selling a lot more more PS3s than others. Had the sales in countries been what I thought they were, had the PS3 increased by a higher percentage, and had the Wii sales not gone up by 40,000 units in one week then it could have come close to a 2 to 1 ratio.  If the PS2 sales doubled overall then PS3 ones could.  I wasn't thinking this through that carefully, however, it was just a guess.  Anyway, it was a bad one and I'm deleting my post as a result of it.  Still, the fact that my guess was wrong is worse for the PS3 supporters.  4 to 1 sales ratio to 3 to 1.  I don't call that a comeback for the PS3.  The PS3 was only being outsold by the Wii 2.5 to 1 at one point.


fair point, no bad blood meant.

At the moment, the US is make or break, doing well in Europe is fine an dandy, but it won't win anything.



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Galaki on 20 July 2007

100k + 20% = 120k (20% increase)
10k + 200% = 30k (200% increase)

Percentages could make people flip out.



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LeroyBrown on 20 July 2007
Soriku said:
Hey, I care about Japan sales most of all. Why? 'Cause if PS3 is sucking in Japan (which is what's happening now) and Wii does good in Japan (now happening) then probably more Jap dev support (S-E, Namo, etc.)


I whole heartedly concur with this. Obviously it is personal opinion, but I really only care about Japanese developers and their franchises, to each their own but in my experiences Western developed games by and large only really seem to appeal to current trends/genres in gaming lacking any real staying power outside of niche groups in the long run.



NJ5 on 23 July 2007
WiteoutKing said:
"Had the sales in countries been what I thought they were, had the PS3 increased by a higher percentage, and had the Wii sales not gone up by 40,000 units in one week then it could have come close to a 2 to 1 ratio."

That's a pretty circular argument. "If these three things that would reduce the ratio happened, the ratio would have been less!"

Using logic? WiteoutKing's a witch, burn!

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Xiru on 23 July 2007
LeroyBrown said:
Soriku said:
Hey, I care about Japan sales most of all. Why? 'Cause if PS3 is sucking in Japan (which is what's happening now) and Wii does good in Japan (now happening) then probably more Jap dev support (S-E, Namo, etc.)


I whole heartedly concur with this. Obviously it is personal opinion, but I really only care about Japanese developers and their franchises, to each their own but in my experiences Western developed games by and large only really seem to appeal to current trends/genres in gaming lacking any real staying power outside of niche groups in the long run.


I too would normally be worried but since the Wii doesn't have the technology to express game developers true imagination and creative talent, I wouldn't worry as much. As long as the PS3 does respectable across the world, Japanese developers will still make the big games for it. Look at Square Enix. If Nintendo had made the Wii even just a little less powerful than the 360, then Nintendo would own the whole world and there would be no 3rd party games for PS3/360. So as it stands now, Wii can sell all it wants but the technology used inside the console really does hurt any future prospects oh huge amazing games like FF13. I'm sure Square could bring FF14 to Wii, but why gives us a taste of heaven only to send us back to earth?

 *Edit* Also, there is a lot of momentum from the price cut. Just wait for the NPD sales. Now if it holds up for more than a month, I will be very happy. All PS3 owners really need is this small push until the big games start coming out in Aug/Sep. Then we should see the PS3 start to catch up to 360's weekly sales until Halo 3 comes out. After Halo 3, I would estimate that PS3 will sell better than 360 for every month after until it passes it in late 2008. It will not ever catch the Wii due to the price and popularity of the mass media.



WiteoutKing on 23 July 2007

People keep kicking around the Wii for its graphical "weakness", we have yet to see how far it can really go. There were some drop-dead gorgeous games on the GameCube.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007