>>any mix of China, India

In China, from what I heard, the distribution of consoles and software by foreign companies has been severely restricted by the Chinese government (E.g. Nintendo was forced to establish a partnership with a Chinese company, iQue, to sell DSLite. Likewise EA and other publishers weren't allowed to publish games by themselves).

Because of these regulations, foreign companies including Nintendo haven't really made it in the market. I'm not sure about the intention of the government, but probably it is to protect domestic game companies from competitive foreign firms. Typical protectionism for developing countries. Despite the recent success of Shanghai game expo, there still is no sign that the government will relax those restrictions.

Piracy is undoubtedly another factor that increases risk for Nintendo. I've read somewhere that over 90% of software used in China are pirated copies. The number is probably even higher for game software. I presume chip-modding as well as fake DS/Wii imitations will flood the market. And I don't think the government is serious about fixing the piracy problem even though they said they would.

I'm curious about the Indian market however - government regulations, piracy, gaming culture, demographic, et cetra. It's a huge market.

I think one huge advantage that the PS2 had/has is that it is also a DVD player. The Wii does not have the capability nor is it really important now. Seven years ago that advantage played well to consumers.

But who knows if the Wii really opens up a Pandora's box to non-gamer's wallets it is easily possible.

To make my post short and simple, I will say I agree with a lot of what Bodhesatva has said.

But I think it is WAY WAY to early to give these kinds of predictions any real merit, we have not seen the Wii's first real X-Mas numbers. Launch X-mas is not indicative of current Wii sales, and I think this year's X-mas numbers are going to be the first glimpse at the Wii's possibilities for this kind of a record.

Aside from that an all-to often ignored fact of the PS2 is that its sales numbers have a lot to do with double/triple-purchases and other nefarious reasons. In other words, there were a lot of consoles that people had to purchase 2 or 3 times due to laser failures, consoles purchased twice because they wanted slim, and a large market opened up when the HD loader become prevalent and people started pirating games on the system. Some of you may not be aware of this but with the right information you can stick all your PS2 games on an HD and load them without the discs. Now add in rentals and you have major interest in the console from the piracy community.

I won't open a debate on the validity of those sales being included, I just wanted to point out that those are the booms in sales that the Wii will be contending with. And if it does manage to outsell the PS2 without dipping into those markets then those are some truly amazing sales numbers.

Sqrl, the multiple purchases do count when people get 2 or 3 good years out of a console. (Though being a Nintendo fan I am used to a "slightly" longer lifespan.) And so do hardware revisions, because when people trade in their old model, people buy the trade in and add to the number of people buying software.

Your post was a bit long, Bodhesatva, so I went ahead and took out the links. I'll show why I think the Wii is taking over rather then expanding:

Nintendo

Mar-2007

0.00 / 17.15

0.00 / 23.35

0.00 / 8.58

0.00 / 49.08

Nintendo

Mar-2007

0.00 / 5.55

0.00 / 20.63

0.00 / 6.75

0.00 / 32.93

Alos of people consider the N64 a failure simply because it wasn't the market leader. The N64 was able to regain 67% of their user base. Even with decreased sales the N64 would still have out sold Sega's genisis with these numbers, and would have still been the market leader. In the US Nintendo snaged 87% of their fanbase. In other regions it took 82%, and in Japan 32%. Now, just take a look at what the PS1 was able to do by expanding the market:

Sony

Mar-2007

0.00 / 21.59

0.00 / 40.78

0.00 / 40.12

0.00 / 102.49

I'll admit that the PS1 did take over Japan rather than expanding it, but just look at the other countries. The PS1 did 40m in the US without even bothering Nintendo's sales. The same goes for others, as well. This is what I call expanding the market. The PS1 was able to bring millons of new gamers without effecting Nintendo's sales at all. By adding media stuff in the playstation and making more realistic games, Sony was able to get people that thought games were for kids to play. I really don't see this happening with the Wii and PS3 at all. Do you think it's possible for the PS3 to gather a solid 67% of their user base, which would be 80m units sold? I don't thinks that very likely at all. I also don't think Nintendo's way of trying to expand the market will have the outcome as Sony's. Unlike the PS1, the Wii just isn't for every one.

I just don't think it's possible for the Wii to be expanding the already huge market to a point that that the Wii does around 132m with the PS3 being able to do 80m with the 360 doing 30m. I think you and me will both agree that the Wii has won Japan, and will dominate it. There's no way the PS3 is gonna turn around do great in Japan. I do, however, feel that the PS3 will do better then the gamecube in Japan, and that the Wii will do worse then the PS2 Japan. So, the Wii should be able to do, say, 18.5m in Japan with the PS3 5.5-7m? Thats not really expanding the market now, is it? The same goes for the other regions, as well.

 This is why alot of people say the Wii is fucking up gaming, because in reality, it is! But, I would rather not talk about that with this site being Nintendo only, everything else sucks, so this is the last I will say about the Wii fucking up gaming.

...but it's a personal fitness computer! I bet there are tons of "overweight-and-want-to-do-something-about-it-but-are-too-shy-to-go-to-a-gym" people the world over who see this as the perfect machine for doing that "something about it".

Remember, at least in the land of infomercials that is the US, people will buy anything that remotely resembles a promise to shed off the excess pounds. The Wii is that machine - in their eyes at least. It's affordable (probably cheaper than a membership at a fitness club), accessible, and it's interactive - that's already a vast improvement over exercise DVDs!

Like I said, I really don't want to hash this debate out, its an old one, and there are a number of factors on both side. I just don't want to derail this thread is all.

I brought the point up just to illustrate some of the reasons why the PS2 is where it is, for better or for worse, the numbers are what they are. 

@grandmaster192 I think the Wii will sell more than 22mil in Japan and surpass the PS2 there.

We can't really tell if new gamers are going to buy Wii en masse or not right now, because they still aren't on shelves at the discount department stores (Walmart, etc.) That is where the casual gamers are probably going to buy the Wii when it is available, if they are going to bite.

The problem nintendo might face, is because the Hardcore bought in to Wii, and they didn't think they would and are sellingout, Nintendo has to keep up all the hype for the new gamers to still want one when there are enough on the shelves. Between Wii competing with DS, and the unexpected reaction from the core gamers, Nintendo's it's own worst enemy.

I think I used a few too many cliches.

grandmaster192 said: Bodhesatva said: The available statistical (and anecdotal) evidence doesn't agree with this position, so I'm not sure why you hold to it so tightly. Specifically, the Wii seems to be expanding the female and adult (age 25+) markets, according to NPD. At least in terms of console gaming -- PC gaming was always more mature and feminine than console gaming, which has tended to stay very young (6-17) and very male. Again, there are hundreds more all over the web. Like the Red Ring of Death issues, the examples are enumerable and begin to look much more like a data set than individual points. But again, we don't need to rely on these anecdotes anyway: the statistical evidence is right there, provided directly by NPD and the CEA. As I said, I'm not sure why you hold to this misconception so tightly, Grand, but it does seem to fly against all available evidence.   Your post was a bit long, Bodhesatva, so I went ahead and took out the links. I'll show why I think the Wii is taking over rather then expanding: Nintendo Mar-2007 0.00 / 17.15 0.00 / 23.35 0.00 / 8.58 0.00 / 49.08 Nintendo Mar-2007 0.00 / 5.55 0.00 / 20.63 0.00 / 6.75 0.00 / 32.93 Alos of people consider the N64 a failure simply because it wasn't the market leader. The N64 was able to regain 67% of their user base. Even with decreased sales the N64 would still have out sold Sega's genisis with these numbers, and would have still been the market leader. In the US Nintendo snaged 87% of their fanbase. In other regions it took 82%, and in Japan 32%. Now, just take a look at what the PS1 was able to do by expanding the market: Sony Mar-2007 0.00 / 21.59 0.00 / 40.78 0.00 / 40.12 0.00 / 102.49 I'll admit that the PS1 did take over Japan rather than expanding it, but just look at the other countries. The PS1 did 40m in the US without even bothering Nintendo's sales. The same goes for others, as well. This is what I call expanding the market. The PS1 was able to bring millons of new gamers without effecting Nintendo's sales at all. By adding media stuff in the playstation and making more realistic games, Sony was able to get people that thought games were for kids to play. I really don't see this happening with the Wii and PS3 at all. Do you think it's possible for the PS3 to gather a solid 67% of their user base, which would be 80m units sold? I don't thinks that very likely at all. I also don't think Nintendo's way of trying to expand the market will have the outcome as Sony's. Unlike the PS1, the Wii just isn't for every one. I just don't think it's possible for the Wii to be expanding the already huge market to a point that that the Wii does around 132m with the PS3 being able to do 80m with the 360 doing 30m. I think you and me will both agree that the Wii has won Japan, and will dominate it. There's no way the PS3 is gonna turn around do great in Japan. I do, however, feel that the PS3 will do better then the gamecube in Japan, and that the Wii will do worse then the PS2 Japan. So, the Wii should be able to do, say, 18.5m in Japan with the PS3 5.5-7m? Thats not really expanding the market now, is it? The same goes for the other regions, as well. This is why alot of people say the Wii is fucking up gaming, because in reality, it is! But, I would rather not talk about that with this site being Nintendo only, everything else sucks, so this is the last I will say about the Wii fucking up gaming.

 How exactly, is the Wii not for everyone? The only group I think you would have a valid argument about are the hardcore gamers, and I have to answer with zelda, mario, Manhunt, Godfather, Metroid, and I can't remember the name of the game but its an RPG by the guy who started the FF series iirc (someone help me out with the title please).