I'm with you on this.  Maybe it's somewhere between being a smashing success and a complete failure.  Unfortunately, people don't want to settle for something "between" and journalists will spin the facts to support their claim based on how much they like or hate Sony.

they need to drop the dvd for the bluray

wait what? ive said next year will be bluerays coming out party, but no, it will not rule until 2011 earliest, i feel that if good things happen, you will see next year the first blueray only major movie (it will be a timed thing but majorly drive blue ray temporarly). there is no way blue ray out strips sales of dvd, next year it will start effect dvd volume, but will not be dom format until 2011 earliest

I can imagine these types of debates when colour TV was first introduced, or "Talkies" at the cinemas. TV will never replace radio in lounges, There's no market for computers outside laboratories...

It will never catch on...rofl

They were saying similar things about HDTV (intro. 1998) until about 1-2 years ago.  If people actually looked into how long it took for telephone, B&W TV, color TV, cell-phone, CD players, they would be in for a surprise.

Blu-Rays are just too expensive in Australia for it to really take off at the moment, I love them but at an average of about $40 for a new release it's just rip off.

There's a big difference between all those inventions and their predecessors though. DVD to BluRay is minimal and doesn;t compare to any of those differences at all. On top of that you need your HD TV/Projector to get your benefit and those cost themselves a lot more than a normal TV/Projector. Then you still have the fact that the player and the movies themselves cost more. In the end, it's way too much money for not nearly enough benefit. I'll be honest when I say that I can barely notice the difference between a BluRay and a DVD movie when playing on my computer. With the telephone I could instantly talk, with TV I'd see shows and whatnot, CD players allowed for more storage and easy browsing, and BluRay offers me...... a little better looking picture? Not worth it at all imo.

Every negative article says the same exact thing. But you can't compare this to VHS to DVD.

There is no need to upgrade every single DVD you have in Blu-Ray if you have a BD player, it can still play and upscale your DVDs. It's not going to transition as pronounced or as quickly obviously.

And the other points have been brought up to death, but the fact of the matter is that it is going to happen, and many people will eat their socks.

But why post this in the Sony Discussion forum?

Your analogy breaks down fairly quickly.  For a new consumer electronics technology to be successful, it needs to have at least one *compelling* advantage over the existing technology, without any significant drawbacks.  And by compelling I mean something the masses will go for.

Let's look at each of the technologies you mentioned:

1. Telephone.  Compelling advantage over the telegraph?  Actual voice communication and no morse-code knowledge required (accessible to the masses).

2. B&W TV.  Compelling advantage over radio?  Video transmission.  Duh!

3. Color TV.  Obvious compelling advantage over B&W.

4. Cell-phone.  Compelling advantage over radio phones?  Able to switch cells so broad areas can be traversed during a call vs having to stay within range of a single tower.  Lower power requirements.

5. CD players.  Compelling advantage over cassette and reel-to-reel tape?  Longevity, mass-production (stamping instead of recording onto each copy), reduced hiss, etc.  I'm not even going to discuss 8-track tape as it was here and gone in a short period of time due to a lot of disadvantages.

A counter-example is Laserdisc.  I have 90 Laserdisc movies, but it never caught on with the masses because its compelling advantages (better picture, random chapter access, longevity) were offset by too many disadvantages (large, hard-to-handle discs, having to manually flip discs except in higher-end players, expensive discs).

Now let's look at Blu-ray.  Advantages over DVD?  Fantastic, movie-theater like picture, and improved but not groundbreaking sound (DVDs have 5.1 surround which provides for a very good theater-sound experience).  Greater storage so very long movies can fit on one disc.  Nearly indestructable.

But notice that I didn't say *compelling* advantages over DVD.  While Blu-ray raises the bar in certain areas, particularly for audio/video-philes like me, DVD already provides a good picture on standard TVs, good theater-like sound with the right audio setup, random chapter selection, longevity (unless someone is careless with them... I have dozens of DVDs and have never had a DVD fail on me over the years), etc.  Blu-ray is essentially an improved DVD, not a big quantum leap like DVDs were over video tape, and a quantum leap is what the masses require to invest in new technology.

And Blu-ray has some disadvantages right now compared with DVD.  Price of the movies and the players.  HDTV required to experience the improved video quality.  Disc incompatibility with DVD players (no watching the movies in the vehicle on a trip, or in the dormroom players, or in the bazillion computers already equipped with DVD drives).

Again, I really hope Blu-ray survives because I love the format, but I'm not going to start comparing it to the advent of TVs or the telephone.  Give me a break.

I'm sure the BulRay will sell something, but I doubt it will break 50% of the market share. People just don't have such disposable incomes for such minimal benefits. Especially right now with the economy. These numbers are all taken in before the depression hit, imagine what will happen now. You are right though, you can't compare it to the VHS -> DVD, the jump between those two media was much much greater than DVD -> Bluray.