Out of curiousity do you think the Wii userbase will pass the combine userbase of the 360 and PS3? And how long will it take?

sometime in 09

I'm thinking it's just going to miss it. The wii still needs to beat the other two by 3 million and it's not been over 50% every week many weeks yes but not all of them and not always by a huge margin. I know the wii's numbers will increase this holiday but so will the numbers of the ps3 and 360

right now it's struggling to sell in the vicinity of PS3+360. It has to sell demonstrably more than both combined in order to do so in any reasonable time frame. Reggie seems to think that they will be meeting demand in January, so if it's not selling significantly more than the two of them combined on a weekly basis by febuary next year, then it may not be within this generation.

I still say never, it will be supply constrained for the Holidays and the inevitable PS3 price drop will take away some market share next year.

hahahaha, lol.

This is the samething as the brazillion other threads about when the Wii would be > 50% market share. Here lets link to a couple as I know I have given quality responses to this question at least 4 times.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=12354
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=27494
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=36110
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=6477

I'll stop there, but below are the numerous threads started almost at every time the Wii gained 0.1% which alwasy boiled down to the same debate.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=21738
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=37648
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=13442

ok, I'll stop now. Without going into a lot of fuss ;) Wii will be > 50% market share by January 2009.

Wii sales are already starting to come back down to earth. It did not beat PS3 + 360 last year from October thru December, and this year the fight will be even harder. Now the 360 has a cheaper entry price than the Wii, and the new avatars system will be a very comforting looking interface for parents planning to get a console for there children. Microsoft and Sony will be marketing the crap out of Banjo, and Little Big Planet both of which are in direct fire with Nintendos core audiance. Home will also be launched very soon, and it is going to be one of the biggest services Sony has ever took part in. Expect massive media about Home as Sony dumps the money into marketing it. The last thing to mention on the games side, is last year Sony had no big games launched. This year Sony and Microsoft both have very nice line-ups and many people that were not willing to go all out for GT, and MGS earlier will now be a little less hesetent.

This year has also brought a lot of non gaming apps to the PS3 and 360 that will be very lucrative to many PS2, and Xbox owners needing more reasons to move on from the last generation. This holiday is the first holiday that Blu-ray in which Blu-ray will be the only option for HD movies, on a disk. Not to mention both consoles also allow users to rent SD and HD movies directly onto the console. Microsoft has a very well known name brand behind there service in the form of netflix, while Sony's offering is much less known, the service called Home which I mentioned above should do a fine job of getting the word passed around.

As far as how the future beyond this holiday looks, thing for Wii will only grow harder and harder. Next year we are garanteed to see Wii with more colors and a price drop. We will also see redesigns for the PS3 and 360 as the chipsets will be small enough to make major cosmetic changes. It is almost sertant that Sony will lower the price of PS3 next year, and I would not count out a PS2 at 99 sometime during the year. Next yer will also be the first year the PS3 is going to be in full stride. We will finally start to see new exclusives once to twice a month the remander of the PS3's prime years.

I see this as the last year that the Wii will have such dominance over the market. Next year most retailers will only be offering HDTV's, this will obviously expand the growth of the HD market and with more people having HDTV's the liklyhood that they will pick up a HD compatable device such as PS3 or 360 will only become greater. Japan, North America, and Western Europe will all be getting much faster internet connections over the next year. As the internet continues to become a simpler tool, and people move more towards downloads, and renting movies from DLC providers, the need for a console or media box with a large amounts of storage will only grow. Both the PS3 and the 360 are ahead of their time. With every year both systems become more and more of a usefull device for anyone in or out of gaming. The Wii has had its moment in the spotlight, but its life line is almost gone.

 nice good opinion..you remind me of leo j, bolding massive prediction that failed miserbly

It's not a question of if it will or not, anyone who looks at the numbers rather than at which console they prefer will tell you this

It has been gaining market share frequently, even in weeks where it has no big releases. Even last week, when the 360 was loving 214% higher than normal sales due to a price cut in all regions

It will happen in 09

If I had to be brave, I would say it will happen in the middle third of 09 (ie May-August)

 Actually his prediction of hdtv changing dominance in market makes sense to me.  I just bought a new 50" 1080p HDTV (upgrade from 32" crt) , I have all three systems and the only system that looks crappy is the wii .  I bought component cables for the wii but it still looks very bad.... not even compared to either of the HD consoles, it just looks bad.  So, I put my CRT TV in the basement with the wii.  If nintendo puts out another zelda or mario, I'll go down to the basement and play them otherwise.... I'll play my HD consoles.  ehhhh nm i'll play on my pc.