How long will it take for Wii > 360 + PS3 in total sales

[KBG29]

Wii sales are already starting to come back down to earth. It did not beat PS3 + 360 last year from October thru December, and this year the fight will be even harder. Now the 360 has a cheaper entry price than the Wii, and the new avatars system will be a very comforting looking interface for parents planning to get a console for there children. Microsoft and Sony will be marketing the crap out of Banjo, and Little Big Planet both of which are in direct fire with Nintendos core audiance. Home will also be launched very soon, and it is going to be one of the biggest services Sony has ever took part in. Expect massive media about Home as Sony dumps the money into marketing it. The last thing to mention on the games side, is last year Sony had no big games launched. This year Sony and Microsoft both have very nice line-ups and many people that were not willing to go all out for GT, and MGS earlier will now be a little less hesetent.

This year has also brought a lot of non gaming apps to the PS3 and 360 that will be very lucrative to many PS2, and Xbox owners needing more reasons to move on from the last generation. This holiday is the first holiday that Blu-ray in which Blu-ray will be the only option for HD movies, on a disk. Not to mention both consoles also allow users to rent SD and HD movies directly onto the console. Microsoft has a very well known name brand behind there service in the form of netflix, while Sony's offering is much less known, the service called Home which I mentioned above should do a fine job of getting the word passed around.

As far as how the future beyond this holiday looks, thing for Wii will only grow harder and harder. Next year we are garanteed to see Wii with more colors and a price drop. We will also see redesigns for the PS3 and 360 as the chipsets will be small enough to make major cosmetic changes. It is almost sertant that Sony will lower the price of PS3 next year, and I would not count out a PS2 at 99 sometime during the year. Next yer will also be the first year the PS3 is going to be in full stride. We will finally start to see new exclusives once to twice a month the remander of the PS3's prime years.

I see this as the last year that the Wii will have such dominance over the market. Next year most retailers will only be offering HDTV's, this will obviously expand the growth of the HD market and with more people having HDTV's the liklyhood that they will pick up a HD compatable device such as PS3 or 360 will only become greater. Japan, North America, and Western Europe will all be getting much faster internet connections over the next year. As the internet continues to become a simpler tool, and people move more towards downloads, and renting movies from DLC providers, the need for a console or media box with a large amounts of storage will only grow. Both the PS3 and the 360 are ahead of their time. With every year both systems become more and more of a usefull device for anyone in or out of gaming. The Wii has had its moment in the spotlight, but its life line is almost gone.