What are your thoughts on how long Wii and DS (and WW/DSiWare) will be supported by Nintendo? When I look at Wikipedia, NES was still getting games semi-regularly through 1992, and Wario Woods from Nintendo came out in 1994.
We seem to be getting modest to major DS projects through at least 2011, so I can't imagine Wii projects will dry up before 2013 or so.
It seems to be that as long as there is a 15m ish sw market Nintendo will keep putting projects on its systems.
GC - 2001 - 2006 as 15m games shipped per year
N64 - 1996 - 2001 as 15m games shipped per year
SNES* - 1991 - 1997 as 15m games shipped per year
NES* - 1986 - 1993 (estimated) as 15m games shipped per year
* - Release in 1990 in Japan, and 1983 in Japan, but probably not a 15m market until years listed above.
By calendar year for Wii / DS we have the following so far, and it doesn't look like there will be a super rapid decline for sw.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Wii Not released yet 17.5m 95.7m 199m 197.5m 195m 173m
DS 5m 41.4m 107.8m 176.6m 202.5m 154.9m 129m? 96m?
I'm thinking we'll see SW from Nintendo on Wii / DS for as late as 2015 / 2014 respectively.