Supply constrained my a##

When GTA IV releases in japan, and the holidays come around, and the PC version comes out, I dont think Wii fit will outsell it(yet).

Good point leo-j. I forgot that GTA IV hasn't been released yet in Japan (end of Oct?), and will likely happen prior to Wii Fit passing it's sales. Japan and PC will not be as huge, but they will probably be enough to delay it a few months.

I never said it was constrained... I said it depends on supply. The demand for Wii Fit over Christmas will increase along with the increased Wii demand, but if Nintendo can only put out 220-230k per week then it will certainly be constrained then.

When GTAIV releases in Japan, it will get a mild boost (not sure when the release date is, but I guess an extra 150-200k for 2008)

When the holidays come around GTAIV will not get as large a boost as Wii Fit (assuming stock levels are adequate) or Mario Kart.... I would argue it wouldn't even get as large a Percentage increase as the other games, but even if it does get a bigger increase (%-wise) compared to current weeks sales, the sheer numbers of MKWii and WiiFit will overcome it.

e.g.... GTAIV sells like this for the rest of the year.

(last full week - 52.5k)

next 5 weeks average of 45k
then slight boost, so next 5 weeks avg. 60k
last 5 weeks of the year: 70k - 80k - 100k - 150k - 70k

total sales of just under 1 million.

add Japan ~150k

GTAIV year end total ~ 11.5 million

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Wii Fit
(last full week - 226k)

next 5 weeks average of 220k
then following 5 weeks avg. 260k
last 5 weeks: 300k - 350k - 450k - 700k - 300k

Wii Fit year end total ~ 12 million

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And again assuming supply is ample, I was being very fair to GTAIV there, and gave it a much bigger %age boost than Wii Fit. Although I didn't include PC sales, but I have no idea about them.... all I know is GTA:SA on PC must be around 1.5 million lifetime, but given the later release date and the fact it's on PC i'd think PC versions have longer legs but lower 1st weeks, which means more of GTAIV(PC) will be out of 2008.

GTA IV gets many of its sales once it goes Platinum, so we all have to wait and see. San Andreas sold almost 20 million so IV should do more than that due to market expansion. It will be interesting what happens with Wii Fit after this holiday season, if people will still want it.

Market expansion?  Far more PS2 systems out there than 360 + PS3.

WiiFit lifetime will be more than 50M. But that's many years from now.

I think around 30million for Wii Fit will be more realistic than 50 million...

Present tense?

Also doesn't platinum mean selling 1 million?.... generally (always) a game that sells more than 2 million has most of it's sales after it goes platinum.

Is platinum in this sense meaning a price cut? If so then we will have to wait to see if that comes true.... Even San Andreas did not in fact get most of it's sales after a price cut, it sold over 12 million before getting a price cut (PS2 version) and since then is between 5 and 6 million, so 1/3rd of it's sales.

So it remains to be seen if this holds true, especially considering San Andreas was accepted by gamers more as a brilliant game unlike GTAIV which people seem to have many complaints about, perhaps that will affect it's legs.

the "perfect" game will eat the dust of the Wii Fit, which is far more enjoyable and does provide exercise along with fun!!
(not to mention that it will eat the dust of Mario Kart Wii as well)

GTA IV graphics and violence and resolutions and HD and online and all this SHIT
can do nothing against happy games like Wii Fit and Mario Kart which are much more enjoyable than the generation game....

Nintendo must be very proud of this!!

it may also eat the dust of SSBB, maybe it's impossible now, but if you think SSBB is just 1 platform....

I am doubtful.

In the end SSBB will be above both platform versions of GTAIV seperately, but not the total, it is in a catching up stage at the moment (selling about 10-15k more per week) and SSBB will have excellent legs, but so will GTAIV (albeit cut down from GTA:SA, they will still be decent)