| leo-j said: Supply constrained my a## When GTA IV releases in japan, and the holidays come around, and the PC version comes out, I dont think Wii fit will outsell it(yet). |
I never said it was constrained... I said it depends on supply. The demand for Wii Fit over Christmas will increase along with the increased Wii demand, but if Nintendo can only put out 220-230k per week then it will certainly be constrained then.
When GTAIV releases in Japan, it will get a mild boost (not sure when the release date is, but I guess an extra 150-200k for 2008)
When the holidays come around GTAIV will not get as large a boost as Wii Fit (assuming stock levels are adequate) or Mario Kart.... I would argue it wouldn't even get as large a Percentage increase as the other games, but even if it does get a bigger increase (%-wise) compared to current weeks sales, the sheer numbers of MKWii and WiiFit will overcome it.
e.g.... GTAIV sells like this for the rest of the year.
(last full week - 52.5k)
next 5 weeks average of 45k
then slight boost, so next 5 weeks avg. 60k
last 5 weeks of the year: 70k - 80k - 100k - 150k - 70k
total sales of just under 1 million.
add Japan ~150k
GTAIV year end total ~ 11.5 million
-----------
Wii Fit
(last full week - 226k)
next 5 weeks average of 220k
then following 5 weeks avg. 260k
last 5 weeks: 300k - 350k - 450k - 700k - 300k
Wii Fit year end total ~ 12 million
---------
And again assuming supply is ample, I was being very fair to GTAIV there, and gave it a much bigger %age boost than Wii Fit. Although I didn't include PC sales, but I have no idea about them.... all I know is GTA:SA on PC must be around 1.5 million lifetime, but given the later release date and the fact it's on PC i'd think PC versions have longer legs but lower 1st weeks, which means more of GTAIV(PC) will be out of 2008.
