This is true, after all Nintendo adopted the policy the British government is considering with ID cards... that being they will be compulsory for everyone, but not wholly funded by the government and thus you have to pay to get your own compulsory ID.

Things will probably slow down about a year after same-value competition emerges. That's what happened with the NES (its biggest year was 1989, the year the Genesis came out). Or failing that, the market apogee will likely be hit around about 2012 or so.

I think that the wii will reach a saturation point when it has a install base close to 100 million. The only reason why the ps2 sold so well was because of it's high failure rate.

I think Wii will have a similar peak as the DS (which could be peaking now in EU, America unsure). So 2010 will be the peak 2011 will begin YoY decline.

Of course, the Wii will stop selling and people who already own Wiis will sell them back to buy PS3s and 360s. This fad can only go on for so long after all.

@ onimusha:- Do you really think that or is it just a forlorn hope?

"I think that the wii will reach a saturation point when it has a install base close to 100 million. The only reason why the ps2 sold so well was because of it's high failure rate."

I guess having by far more games in the 7.5-10 range than any other gaming system except for PCs had nothing at all to do to with its success.

The right amnswer is 2011

Ah, so THAT's how all those analysts expect the Wii to go into negative sales.  I always thought Microsoft had a spy in the Wii production plant who snuck tiny little grenades into every Wii that would go off when Ballmer called for the execution of order 66.

Your comment really doesn't dispute what he said ...

With all consoles (including the Wii, PS3 and XBox 360) after the initial waranty period has expired there is a certain percentage of systems that are being bought because someone is replacing their broken system. Some of this will be caused because moving parts (in optical disc drives) can wear out, or because an individual did something which damaged their system. Eventually, if a system becomes popular enough and lives long enough, most new sales of a system would be from people replacing their broken system (which, I suspect, is what is happening with the PS2 now).

The PS2 was never a particuarly well built system, and Sony settled a class action lawsuit out of cort related to the PS2's high failure rate. It is impossible for us to speculate how many PS2 systems sold represent replacement systems, but I don't think that the assumption that 1/4 to 1/3 of PS2 systems sold were replacement systems is all that unrealistic.

Beyond that, as the Wii demonstrates, the majority of consumers don't care about review scores and they buy the system they want because they want it ...