@heruamon
No one has 'empirical data' but the people at Ensemble, so no one will know exactly. But it doesnt take a rocket scientist to work out that when a studio that is in charge of that franchise loses some key management, the game may not suffer in quality if they hire good people, but in the very least, the franchise will be put on hold until the team is settled and the development cycles will be longer.
The fact that MS is pushing investment elsewhere shows this, and the retained Ensemble staff are now MGS staff, so they can be put on all the other projects. If AoE4 was in production, why the hell would MS close Ensemble? And if you want me to make a prediction it will be that after Halo Wars, the new MGS staff will not work on AoE4 but on another 360 project- just my prediction.
As profitable as AoE was, it pales in comparison to other MGS games now for the 360. For the retained Ensemble staff, this could be a big boon for them, especially as Halo Wars is shaping up to be a fantastic game.
By the way, I really like AoE. But I will take better 360 games anyday. And thats why I said, only if I play PC exclusively, this is a sad day.