As of October 1st, 2008.
Obama: 286 (n/c)
McCain: 190 (-35)
Tie: 62 (+35)
RCP has Obama controlling Florida, Ohio, AND NC, not to mention Virginia and Colorado:
Ohio:
RCP Average 09/27 - 09/29 -- 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 50 42 Obama +8
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 47 45 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 48 McCain +1
Florida:
RCP Average 09/21 - 09/29 -- 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 836 LV 51 43 Obama +8
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 941 LV 49 46 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 47 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 47 48 McCain +1
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 45 48 McCain +3
North Carolina:
Numbers haven't changed since I last posted them.
Colorado:
RCP Average 09/14 - 09/28 -- 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 49 48 Obama +1
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 794 LV 51 47 Obama +4
InAdv/PollPosition 09/23 - 09/23 505 LV 50 41 Obama +9
PPP (D) 09/20 - 09/21 1084 LV 51 44 Obama +7
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1418 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Virginia:
RCP Average 09/17 - 09/29 -- 48.5 46.5 Obama +2.0
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 436 LV 51 45 Obama +6
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 50 47 Obama +3
ARG 09/27 - 09/29 600 LV 46 49 McCain +3
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/17 - 09/22 625 LV 44 47 McCain +3
ABC News/Wash Post 09/18 - 09/21 698 LV 49 46 Obama +3
SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 51 45 Obama +6
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
Thoese qunnipiac polls in OH and VA seem to be way above what we have seen, but they are a well respected poll. I wonder what's up with it. I'm just not buying that big of a jump until we see more evidence.
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Double post, doh
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| Aiemond said: Thoese qunnipiac polls in OH and VA seem to be way above what we have seen, but they are a well respected poll. I wonder what's up with it. I'm just not buying that big of a jump until we see more evidence. |
Definitely, they do seem a bit high in Ohio and Florida. I would say that +6 would be about the highest anyone could reasonably estimate, whereas something in the +3-5 range is more reasonable. It is definitely conceivable that Obama now has the edge in those states, and the averaging effect of RCP helps dilute the effect of the Quinnipac polls.
But then again McCain may just be tanking.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
Hm... I don't see this going up for McCain in the short term. Biden is going to clobber Palin at the debate (as long as he doesn't say anything stupid), I think people will continue to see Obama as stronger on the economy... I just don't see anything that could go his way in the future.
"A CBS News Poll released Wednesday that Mr. Obama’s favorability rating, at 48 percent, is the highest it has ever been in polls conducted by CBS and The New York Times. At the same time, the number of voters who hold an unfavorable view of Mr. McCain — 42 percent — is as high as it has been since the CBS News and The Times began asking the question about Mr. McCain in 1999, the first time he ran for president."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/us/politics/02poll.html?em
| FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47 MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43 MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48 NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47 VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44 CNN/TIME polls |
I'm having a hard time believing these new polls. Virginia was supposed to be safe for McCain. It was supposed to be a little competitive and Obama would spend some money to force McCain to spend some resources there. Florida was always considered leaning for McCain and Obama went after it pretty hard. It looks like it's paying off.
The "50 State" strategy, authored by Howard Dean and used by the DNC in the 2006 and now again in the 2008 election seems to be paying off. States that were considered safe republican states are now becoming competitive or even looking like they're going to vote democrat. If the "solid south" breaks this election it will signal a change in the political landscape for the Republicans much like the defeat of McGovern caused the Democratic party to re-align itself along more mainstream values.
There's still a lot of scenarios to how the EC could play out but the deciding or "swing states" of the 2008 presidential campaign are still Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. With Obama leading all of them (!) it's going to take a dramatic turn-around to put McCain back in the lead. The race usually narrows in the last week and especially in the last 2-3 days so we won't know for another month, but it looks like McCain has his work cut out for him.
The VP debate tomorrow should be interesting to watch but inconsequential to who wins or loses the general election. That is, unless one of them really fucks up.
I am interested in seeing a new post economic meltdown georgia poll. With it being Barr's home state it may take a chunk of McCain's vote.
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North Carolina back to statistically tied, but Obama takes Nevada by a very slight margin with two new polls:
North Carolina
RCP Average 09/17 - 09/29 -- 46.5 46.8 Obama +0.3
ARG 09/27 - 09/29 600 LV 49 46 McCain +3
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 1041 LV 45 47 Obama +2
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 500 LV 47 49 Obama +2
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 09/17 - 09/20 600 LV 45 45 Tie
Nevada:
RCP Average 09/17 - 09/30 -- 47.3 47.8 Obama +0.5
InAdv/PollPosition 09/30 - 09/30 437 LV 47 48 Obama +1
CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 684 LV 47 51 Obama +4
ARG 09/27 - 09/29 600 LV 49 47 McCain +2
Suffolk University 09/17 - 09/21 600 LV 46 45 McCain +1
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
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