| FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47 MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43 MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48 NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47 VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44 CNN/TIME polls |
I'm having a hard time believing these new polls. Virginia was supposed to be safe for McCain. It was supposed to be a little competitive and Obama would spend some money to force McCain to spend some resources there. Florida was always considered leaning for McCain and Obama went after it pretty hard. It looks like it's paying off.
The "50 State" strategy, authored by Howard Dean and used by the DNC in the 2006 and now again in the 2008 election seems to be paying off. States that were considered safe republican states are now becoming competitive or even looking like they're going to vote democrat. If the "solid south" breaks this election it will signal a change in the political landscape for the Republicans much like the defeat of McGovern caused the Democratic party to re-align itself along more mainstream values.
There's still a lot of scenarios to how the EC could play out but the deciding or "swing states" of the 2008 presidential campaign are still Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. With Obama leading all of them (!) it's going to take a dramatic turn-around to put McCain back in the lead. The race usually narrows in the last week and especially in the last 2-3 days so we won't know for another month, but it looks like McCain has his work cut out for him.
The VP debate tomorrow should be interesting to watch but inconsequential to who wins or loses the general election. That is, unless one of them really fucks up.
