I won't bother updating the electoral-vote chart today...since the only change is that Colorado went from weak Obama to slightly Obama.

I don't think we will see any evidence of the debates until maybe mid next week.  And considering that most place it at a tie I'm not sure we will see much of a bump for either candidate.

I think the only thing that is going to affect the numbers debate-wise is the VP debate.  Palin has been rocky in her conversations with tv interviewers which has even prompted a conservative commentator to urge her to step down from the VP spot.   And Biden is known to say exactly what he feels.....which isn't the best strategy for a politician (or is it?).  I even find it interesting that when CNN polled it's readership about which debate they were looking forward to more....it was an even split between the Presidential debate and the Vice-Presidential debate.  I'm not sure the last time that a VP carried so much attention or news in a Presidential election.

Well, I'm quite glad Colorado is staying blue.

I think the presidential debates will affect the numbers amongst the independents. McCain and Obama both did fine, no doubt, and both bases will view their performances as solid.

Then their's the independents. I'm predicting more of them heard the message "More of the Same" vs. the message "Change that We Need". The candidates provided a clear choice. In my lifetime there hasn't been a choice that is this stark. Clinton vs. Bush in '90 was the biggest before this, but pales in comparison. Nixon vs. McGovern was also a fairly severe choice but it wasn't a campaign with real issues after the Eagleton debacle.

@ Steven

Most pundits called it a draw, really to be safe. However, voters called it true - Obama.

I thought McCain was rather disappointing. All he did was attack and call Obama naive. I could see if he was talking about Palin, but not a person who took down the mighty Clinton machine and other candidates with much more experience.

Really, it boiled down to respect. Obama showed it, McCain didn't. And Obama was good for shooting down lies shot out by McCain.

McCain was expected to blow O out of the water - and didn't. And really, he came across as being out of touch and a whiner. And then, not even mentioning middle class once? Wow, McShame - you really, really need to get a clue.

The Biden/Palin debate should be much more interesting, for obvious reasons.

Biden: Would you like your Palin rare, medium-rare or well done?

Expectations will be so low that if she cancels and then at the last minute decides to show up she'll win. Here's a tidbit from the NYT on Palin:

"But the idea that the voters of the United States might install someone in the vice president’s office who is too unprepared or too intellectually insecure to appear on, say, “Meet the Press” or “Face the Nation” is mind-boggling."

I'm now convinced that McCain had Tim Russert murdered.

That was a joke.

This is interesting

Obama 286   McCain 252

	Strong Dem (175)
	Weak Dem (75)
	Barely Dem (36)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (89)
	Weak GOP (14)
	Strong GOP (149)

I don't believe the total count is significant when the election is still more than a month away. However, look at the chart.

Look where they fall.

There's the significance. (Edit: I'm talking statistical significance (as in for sure to get the state), not electoral significance.)

steven787 said: This is interesting Obama 286   McCain 252 Strong Dem (175) Weak Dem (75) Barely Dem (36) Exactly tied (0) Barely GOP (89) Weak GOP (14) Strong GOP (149) I don't believe the total count is significant when the election is still more than a month away. However, look at the chart. Strong Dem (175) Strong GOP (149) Weak Dem (75) Weak GOP (14) Barely Dem (36) Barely GOP (89) Obama 286 McCain 252 Look where they fall. There's the significance. (Edit: I'm talking statistical significance (as in for sure to get the state), not electoral significance.)

I believe it means if the election were held today, and the numbers revert to the mean (or whatever the technical phrase is), it would be a pretty huge win for Obama. McCain would have to be counting on a lot of tails (small occurences) happening.

As of September 28th, 2008.

Obama: 286

McCain: 252

Tie: 0

No changes today (I'm not sure if the page gets updated on Sundays).  I just wanted to get the map on the third page.

In regards to the discussion about the Weak Obama and Barely McCain...

The only consistent state of major worth for McCain is Texas.  Most of the others are 3-4 electoral vote states that don't add up to much electoral vote wise.  The result of this is to make the entire map look very red, since most of the middle of the map is Strong McCain.  The votemaster has actually come up with a map that reprenets the states by their electoral values.  It's a funny looking map, but it certainly illustrates this difference.

McCain will win most, if not all, of the barely Republican states. Whether it is FL, MO, or NC does not matter. McCain will win in those states. What this does portend, however, is that Obama could win the popular vote but also lose the EC vote.

What?  McCain is "winning" those states right now.....and is losing.

So what others is he going to pick up that will make him a lock for the electoral vote?