PoliCHARTZ - Thread of U.S. Politics & the Presidential Election

[fkusumot]

steven787 said:

This is interesting

Obama 286   McCain 252

	Strong Dem (175)
	Weak Dem (75)
	Barely Dem (36)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (89)
	Weak GOP (14)
	Strong GOP (149)

I don't believe the total count is significant when the election is still more than a month away. However, look at the chart.

Strong Dem (175)	Strong GOP (149)
Weak Dem (75)	Weak GOP (14)
Barely Dem (36)	Barely GOP (89)
Obama 286	McCain 252

Look where they fall.

There's the significance. (Edit: I'm talking statistical significance (as in for sure to get the state), not electoral significance.)

 

I believe it means if the election were held today, and the numbers revert to the mean (or whatever the technical phrase is), it would be a pretty huge win for Obama. McCain would have to be counting on a lot of tails (small occurences) happening.