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Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD Predictions

DIAR said: DS- 257,000 Wii - 230,000 360 - 215,000 PS2 - 80,000 PSP - 79,000 PS3 - 55,000 Short month and not many people buying. I say that is closer. PS3 will continue to bomb, thats what you get for a 600 buck price tag!
Come on Diar? 55k. The PS3 will sell far better than that. Its not selling that poorly. Well I guess I'll take a shot at this. So I can't get called out by another poster Wii 300,000 (supply constrained) DS 275,000 (supply constrained) PS2 240,000 360 235,000 PS3 195,000 PSP 180,000 I dare not even try my hand at software sales.



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PS3 was higher on the amazon.com best selling hardware list (8-10 position - 13-18 xbox360) for last couple of days but now is sold out and next shipment will be around march 7th - it's pretty popular store so probably global sale will be similar I suppose. I think software (VF5, Motorsport, Oblivion, Fear etc.) will boost hardware sale a bit and this time PS3 is right after wii (next-gen only). I would say: Wii - 250k PS3 - 160k Xbox 360 - 130k DS - 200k psp - 150k



DIAR said: DS- 257,000 Wii - 230,000 360 - 215,000 PS2 - 80,000 PSP - 79,000 PS3 - 55,000 Short month and not many people buying. I say that is closer. PS3 will continue to bomb, thats what you get for a 600 buck price tag!
And the 360 figure is way too high. But we'll see in a week. :D





kber81 said: PS3 was higher on the amazon.com best selling hardware list (8-10 position - 13-18 xbox360) for last couple of days but now is sold out and next shipment will be around march 7th - it's pretty popular store so probably global sale will be similar I suppose. I think software (VF5, Motorsport, Oblivion, Fear etc.) will boost hardware sale a bit and this time PS3 is right after wii (next-gen only). I would say: Wii - 250k PS3 - 160k Xbox 360 - 130k DS - 200k psp - 150k
I'm not too sure I would generalize the sales at one particular store to make a claim about the popularity of a system. There are two (different) reasons why Amazon and Walmart might have very different sales rankings ... A lot of people buy things online because of how 'easy' it is; I assume I am not alone in having spent a little more for a product (and then paid shipping on top of that) to be able to buy a product without having to leave my house or search for it. Usually I end up shopping in a 'real' store because I have enough things to buy there to make it worth my time, or I need something in the immediate future. The second reason is that the 'price' and 'value' of a product probably looks a lot different to people who shop at different stores. If you're shopping at Walmart, Target or Superstore you are probably very aware of the price you're paying for something; whether you can afford it or not you're probably very interested in saving the 5% on that block of cheese you're buying. On the other hand if you're shopping at Best Buy or Futureshop you may be far more interested in the features your product has and are then more interested in the 'value' of a product.



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HappySqurriel said: I'm not too sure I would generalize the sales at one particular store to make a claim about the popularity of a system. There are two (different) reasons why Amazon and Walmart might have very different sales rankings ...
Yes, this is very "silly" estimating, indeed. I have no other source to relate to so I feel alright with this method. Store is popular so in some grade it illustrate the market methinks. The truth is everyone here is guessing, so am I.



I am resurrecting this thread. One interesting thing to note - when browsing through the million sellers on World Wide software shipments on this website..it said Wii-Play had around 300,000 shipped in North America. That makes me think sales of that game are +/-50k of 300,000. Numbers should be out in exactly six days. Expectations: - Wii sells between 300,000 and 500,000 units. Software drives sales. Wario Ware, Zelda, Wii Play, Rayman, Red Steel, Sonic, SSX Blur, Super Monkey Ball, Madden, Call of Duty 3, Elebits sell over 25,000 units during the month...2-3 of which sell over 100,000...With Wii Play selling around 300,000 - PS3 sells between 150,000 and 225,000 units. This is probably the weakest month of the year in America for PS3. Top software..VF5, Resistance, Madden, the crappy sonic, Call of Duty 3 sell over 25,000 units during the month...1 or 2 sell over 100,000. - 360 sells between 175,000 and 325,000 units. Software drives sales. Lost Planet, Crackdown, Gears of War, Madden, Call of Duty 3, DDR, the crappy sonic, sell over 25,000 units during the month...4 or 5 of which sell over 100,000... - DS faces shortages. Hardware around 300k. Diddy Kong Racing, Nintendogs, New Super Mario Bros sell over 100,000. - PSP sells around 250k. A bunch of software sells over 25,000..but none over 100,000. - PS2 hardware sells between 200,000 and 300,000...people wonder about HD and Blu-ray..but DVD's are still only in 30 million households...PS2 works well as a cheap game machine and DVD player...3 or 4 games sell over 100,000 units because the PS2 base is 40 million in America - Gamecube officially dies, selling under 25,000 units of hardware. Software is all but dead as well except for Twilight Princess which does like 100,000. It will go like this I think.. Wii>360>DS>PS2>PSP>PS3... Wii/360/DS/PS2 take the top 10 games But all well represented in top 20, top 50, top 100, etc.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Down side about the actual predictions (the ones I made around 2 weeks ago) was the fact there's an extra week, so whatever I did was screwed up severely :- A few notes since there are 5 weeks: Wii should do well above 300k for VGCharts.org. I'd say somewhere near 400-440k is do-able. 360 should get somewhere near 300-310k for the month - Again, decently up from last year. Signs point to PS3 not having total sellthrough, so I would put it at 240-250k for the month. DS and PSP should do 275/200k respectively. Top 10 (IMO) software - Crackdown - 850,000 (crazy but yes) Wii Sports - 435,000 (estimated Wii sales) Wii Play - 275,000 Virtua Fighter 5 - 205,000 (a decent selling PS3 game!) Gears of War - 175,000 Lost Planet - 170,000 WarioWare:SM - 155,000 Resistance: 147,500 Zelda: TP - 140,000 (Wii) Sonic & The Secret Rings - 100,000



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

when is the numbers out? Also feb will only be 2,5 weeks cos NDP did say jan is 5 weeks period and not a 4 week period that means feb will only be 2,5 weeks 16 dyas or so thats ps3 50ka week 130k-140k 360 50k a week 130-140k Wii 100k a week 200-250k psp 145k ps2 170-200k Ds 200-230k GC 25k Xbox 200-300 units Zune -3000 units Ipod 125M (i hate Ipod but I cant stop you from geting it even if i do my best) (Wiiplay /Wiisports) 200-250K (each one for each Wii sold ) VF5(only was out 1week or 8 days ! so id say 160k (80k the fistday and 10k each day after that ) lostplanet 200k gears 250k Res 130k



Mitran You misunderstood. NPD is set up for 364 day years (52 weeks), but years are 365 days. So in theory, every 7 years they add in an extra week for a year - 2007 is one of those years (2000 and 1993 had a this extra week as well). January NPD covered Dec 30- February 3. February NPD covers Feb 3- March 3 (4 weeks). That puts March NPD from the 3rd to the 31st, lining things up rather nicely. The cycle begins to screw itself up again in April, but because February is 28 days usually, it never gets too messed up until 7 years have passed. If you extrapolate your sales then..you have Wii at 400k/360 at 200k/PS3 at 200k Again, numbers come out in 6 days. March 15, 2007. On the east coast, they will be released at 4:30 p.m. or so. Usually they are leaked and available within 2-3 hours.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu