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Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD Predictions

ranzchic on 22 February 2007

Wii_gamer said: Does someone want to start posting a thread each month, in anticipation, which lists all the upcoming releases for the month? Or alternatively we can synchronise a thread with our predictions league. So we can have a thread each month which introduces the month, gives some ideas as to what to expect, lists major new releases, maybe has the previous month and the same month last year top 10s for reference and then we can chat / discuss what will sell well and it will accompany the predictions league quite nicely. What do people think? Rather than having 3-4 different threads and predictions here and there we can keep it all in one place... My personal thoughts: VF5 won't be that big (VF has never been in America - look back over old sales before making predictions!!) Wii Play will be huge (300-500k - sold out by all accounts) Hardware will be much lower than predicted here - 4 week month not 5 as in Jan - typical Feb hw is ~200k for leading systems - 300-400k is too high (apart from maybe Wii) Sonic could do well over 200k Gears, Guitar Hero etc will fall - def not over 200k
A standard format(i.e. one official thread) is always preferable, to me anyway.



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washimul on 22 February 2007

ranzchic said: Wii_gamer said: Does someone want to start posting a thread each month, in anticipation, which lists all the upcoming releases for the month? Or alternatively we can synchronise a thread with our predictions league. So we can have a thread each month which introduces the month, gives some ideas as to what to expect, lists major new releases, maybe has the previous month and the same month last year top 10s for reference and then we can chat / discuss what will sell well and it will accompany the predictions league quite nicely. What do people think? Rather than having 3-4 different threads and predictions here and there we can keep it all in one place... My personal thoughts: VF5 won't be that big (VF has never been in America - look back over old sales before making predictions!!) Wii Play will be huge (300-500k - sold out by all accounts) Hardware will be much lower than predicted here - 4 week month not 5 as in Jan - typical Feb hw is ~200k for leading systems - 300-400k is too high (apart from maybe Wii) Sonic could do well over 200k Gears, Guitar Hero etc will fall - def not over 200k A standard format(i.e. one official thread) is always preferable, to me anyway.
atleast 30% of the ps3 owners would be buying VF 5 in NA.They are starved due to lack of killer apps. Why do you think people bought LOST PLANET? LOST PLANET was a massive flop in JAPAN with extremely slow pacing. It is because people wanted to Have something to play besides GEARS. We are looknig at a diiferent scenario here. a game like GEARS without AI/PHYSICS sold 3+ million copies........because x360 owners were somewhat deprived of a real good game. IBM has already expressed its dissatisfaction by saying ps3 is massively UNDERUTILIZED. They would be showcasing new techs to devs to utilize maximum potential from the console by virtue of the new RAPIDMIND SDK. this gen is totally different. We are looking at photorealism of CRYSIS rather than cartoonistic disappointers like HALO 3. TRENDS would change this gen . FF13 (which uses the most powerful white engine) would sell more in US than in JAPAN. I bought my ps3 just for that game. ps3 would be the 2nd most selling console in February . It could also come first. IN JAN despite having any game except RESISTANCE ps3s were sold in excess of 240k!!!!!! ps3 would come 2nd in FEB and not to mention MARCH where ps3 takes the top spot forever for another 5years



HappySqurriel on 22 February 2007

My prediction: The PS2, Wii and Nintendo DS sell in the 250,000-350,000 range The XBox 360, PS3 and PSP will all probably be between 150,000-250,000 The GBA, XBox and Gamecube will all sell less that 150,000 On the software side, I don't see much reason to expect any of the new games being released to break 300,000 units ... I expect to see continued strong performance from Wario-Ware, The Legend of Zelda and Gears of War



ranzchic on 23 February 2007

HappySqurriel said: My prediction: The PS2, Wii and Nintendo DS sell in the 250,000-350,000 range The XBox 360, PS3 and PSP will all probably be between 150,000-250,000 The GBA, XBox and Gamecube will all sell less that 150,000 On the software side, I don't see much reason to expect any of the new games being released to break 300,000 units ... I expect to see continued strong performance from Wario-Ware, The Legend of Zelda and Gears of War
Crackdown. I actually forgot to put crackdown on my top ten list. It would probably be in the top because of the Halo3 Beta.



DIAR on 24 February 2007

DS- 257,000 Wii - 230,000 360 - 215,000 PS2 - 80,000 PSP - 79,000 PS3 - 55,000 Short month and not many people buying. I say that is closer. PS3 will continue to bomb, thats what you get for a 600 buck price tag!



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eques judicii on 24 February 2007

Hey guys, I'm just wondering why all your predictions left Crackdown out of the list. All my friends have bought (for the halo 3 beta) and I think that even though it will only be on sale for a week in february it will still crack the top ten list (get it?? ehe) Just wanted to point that out.



TheSource on 24 February 2007

Can someone confirm how long the NPD period is? If it starts the 3rd, it should end March 3 if it is four weeks. I believe that is right because then March data would end on March 31.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Darc Requiem on 01 March 2007

DIAR said: DS- 257,000 Wii - 230,000 360 - 215,000 PS2 - 80,000 PSP - 79,000 PS3 - 55,000 Short month and not many people buying. I say that is closer. PS3 will continue to bomb, thats what you get for a 600 buck price tag!
Come on Diar? 55k. The PS3 will sell far better than that. Its not selling that poorly. Well I guess I'll take a shot at this. So I can't get called out by another poster Wii 300,000 (supply constrained) DS 275,000 (supply constrained) PS2 240,000 360 235,000 PS3 195,000 PSP 180,000 I dare not even try my hand at software sales.



kber81 on 01 March 2007

PS3 was higher on the amazon.com best selling hardware list (8-10 position - 13-18 xbox360) for last couple of days but now is sold out and next shipment will be around march 7th - it's pretty popular store so probably global sale will be similar I suppose. I think software (VF5, Motorsport, Oblivion, Fear etc.) will boost hardware sale a bit and this time PS3 is right after wii (next-gen only). I would say: Wii - 250k PS3 - 160k Xbox 360 - 130k DS - 200k psp - 150k



rendo on 01 March 2007

DIAR said: DS- 257,000 Wii - 230,000 360 - 215,000 PS2 - 80,000 PSP - 79,000 PS3 - 55,000 Short month and not many people buying. I say that is closer. PS3 will continue to bomb, thats what you get for a 600 buck price tag!
And the 360 figure is way too high. But we'll see in a week. :D