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Forums - Microsoft - Do you expect the 360 to have a 40/45 million WW install base by 2012?

Arkk on 08 September 2008
StarcraftManiac said:

Hell no... 360 won't sell that when 2010 arrives. It'll occasionaly dip below 100k Ww starting with THIS year in late September, just before the holidays.

360 will stall at just a few mils above N64 levels... Think 33-37 million or something like that.

And yes boys and girls... The 360's succesor isn't that far away... Remember; Xbox came in late 2001. X360 in late 2005... If Microsoft follows the same schedule, X720 should be there by 2009... But I'd go with late 2010/Spring 2011. Next year will be the big unveilment!... PS3 and Wii succesor is much later!

I think that you are way off. Hell, with MS now making money off of their consoles and overall, and the release of the "New Xbox Experience" just around the corner (which I'm sure they invensted heavily in), I'd say the EARLIEST we would see a successor for the 360 would be holiday 2011. That's MHO though.

 



Just kiss the tip.


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kopstudent89 on 08 September 2008

35 mil



Bokal on 08 September 2008
TheBigFatJ said:
Millennium said:
I think it'll have gotten into the mid-30s by 2010, at which point Microsoft will release the successor to the 360. At that point, anything additional is moot.

 

The 360 will most likely be around 25 million at the end of 2008, and you expect it to only sell 5 million more units over the next two years?  Have you even considered that prediction at all: Microsoft is virtually assured to crush the PS3 this holiday season due to a better lineup (again) and much, much better prices.

Expect the 360 to be at 30 million units around this time next year and expect it to reach about 45 million units total.  The PS3 might reach that many units as well if Sony makes some good pricing moves.

Huh? Considering what happened all this year, I don't see that coming.

 



They will know Helgan belongs to Helghasts

lightbleeder on 08 September 2008

It will only happen if the 360 sells for 50 US dollars



Paul_Warren on 08 September 2008

"Huh? Considering what happened all this year, I don't see that coming."

I don't see it happening either. The PS3 has already established itself as the HD console of choice in Europe regardless of what MS tries to do with the price, and after being on the market for close to three years most Americans that wanted a 360 for Gears and Halo have already purchased one.



My most anticipated games:  Whatever Hideo Kojima is going to do next, Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Gran Turismo 5, Alan Wake, Wii Sports Resort.  Cave Story Wiiware.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqqLMgbtrB8

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Paul_Warren on 08 September 2008

Another reason the XBOX 3 or whatever has to be out in 2010, Gears of War 3. It will be the lead title on the next XBOX. And Gears of War I came out in 2006, 2 is coming out in 2008, so 3 will be out in 2010. Just like the Halo trilogy's trajectory.
Halo 1 in 2001 and 2 in 2004 on original XBOX with 3 coming in 2007 on the 360.



My most anticipated games:  Whatever Hideo Kojima is going to do next, Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Gran Turismo 5, Alan Wake, Wii Sports Resort.  Cave Story Wiiware.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqqLMgbtrB8

Millennium on 08 September 2008

Don't forget Halo 4.



Complexity is not depth. Machismo is not maturity. Obsession is not dedication. Tedium is not challenge. Support gaming: support the Wii.

Be the ultimate ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today! Poisson Village welcomes new players.

What do I hate about modern gaming? I hate tedium replacing challenge, complexity replacing depth, and domination replacing entertainment. I hate the outsourcing of mechanics to physics textbooks, art direction to photocopiers, and story to cheap Hollywood screenwriters. I hate the confusion of obsession with dedication, style with substance, new with gimmicky, old with obsolete, new with evolutionary, and old with time-tested.
There is much to hate about modern gaming. That is why I support the Wii.

Paul_Warren on 08 September 2008

"Don't forget Halo 4."

There has not been an announcement as to what system Halo 4 is going to be on. However, there has been much speculation that it is  actually going to be on the next 'box as well. If you're late or at the least more than halfway through one console's lifespan and it is consistently being outsold each and every week, yet you're still thinking about releasing your next console do you want to release one AAA title on your old system or do you want to have two AAA titles ready at launch for your next system which potentially will be the most expensive console ever up until the time of its release?



My most anticipated games:  Whatever Hideo Kojima is going to do next, Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Gran Turismo 5, Alan Wake, Wii Sports Resort.  Cave Story Wiiware.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqqLMgbtrB8

Seece on 08 September 2008

did somebody just post that it will sell 23 - 24 million???

Its at 20.5 now, with 4 full months ahead including Christmas, + a price cut in its most popular region. I'm fully expecting the 360 to outdo what it did in the last 4 months of last year, which is about 4.5 mill. Sales for yoy have risen so there is no evidence and no logical explanation to say it wont sell better this Christmas with the price cut and the yoy increase.

I expect the 360 to be anywhere between 25 - 28 Million.

I cant predict what will happen in the future years but why do people think the 360 will just drop off in sales? its just hit the magic price point in America where if I'm not wrong, is where most consoles sell the most of their lifetime total.

Also the new xbox will not roll out next Christmas, MAYBE the Christmas after, its just too early.



 

TheBigFatJ on 08 September 2008
Millennium said:
TheBigFatJ said:
Millennium said:
I think it'll have gotten into the mid-30s by 2010, at which point Microsoft will release the successor to the 360. At that point, anything additional is moot.

 

The 360 will most likely be around 25 million at the end of 2008, and you expect it to only sell 5 million more units over the next two years?  Have you even considered that prediction at all: Microsoft is virtually assured to crush the PS3 this holiday season due to a better lineup (again) and much, much better prices.

You expect the 360 to sell 1.25 million units per month for the rest of the year? Microsoft doesn't even make that many 360s. The holidays will give something of a boost, to be sure, but not enough to push the average that high.

You don't think it will sell even million less than last year during the holiday season?  Why do you think it would do so much worse considering that this year it has sold better than last year overall.

From September 1st 2007 to January 5th, 2008 the Xbox 360 sold about 5.9 million units.  Considering that the 360 this year has a better price drop than last year and is considered "mass market priced" at $199, don't you think I'm being extremely conservative in predicting that it will only sell about 4.9 million units during the same yearly holiday season?

During the same period the Wii sold about 8.5 million -- many times what Nintendo was producing.  I think everyone reasonable expects the Wii to drastically outperform last year's holiday season due to Nintendo's increased production throughout this year.