Do you expect the 360 to have a 40/45 million WW install base by 2012?

[TheBigFatJ]

Millennium said:

TheBigFatJ said:

Millennium said:
I think it'll have gotten into the mid-30s by 2010, at which point Microsoft will release the successor to the 360. At that point, anything additional is moot.

 

The 360 will most likely be around 25 million at the end of 2008, and you expect it to only sell 5 million more units over the next two years?  Have you even considered that prediction at all: Microsoft is virtually assured to crush the PS3 this holiday season due to a better lineup (again) and much, much better prices.

You expect the 360 to sell 1.25 million units per month for the rest of the year? Microsoft doesn't even make that many 360s. The holidays will give something of a boost, to be sure, but not enough to push the average that high.

You don't think it will sell even million less than last year during the holiday season?  Why do you think it would do so much worse considering that this year it has sold better than last year overall.

From September 1st 2007 to January 5th, 2008 the Xbox 360 sold about 5.9 million units.  Considering that the 360 this year has a better price drop than last year and is considered "mass market priced" at $199, don't you think I'm being extremely conservative in predicting that it will only sell about 4.9 million units during the same yearly holiday season?

During the same period the Wii sold about 8.5 million -- many times what Nintendo was producing.  I think everyone reasonable expects the Wii to drastically outperform last year's holiday season due to Nintendo's increased production throughout this year.