Shipped =/= sold, even with Nintendo.

BTW, I think of the three polls last weeks, the Nintendo one is the only one that looks like a standard normal distribution, like a good poll of this sort should have.

I guess the other two polls a) didn't have the correct vote options or b) were too heavily influenced by fanboys (probably the latter).

I know shipped != sold.  That's why I even said I left a million out for that discrepancy.  However, I think that eliminating more than a million for shipped/sold differences given the historical knowledge we have of the Wii's shipped/sold discrepancy (that is, less than a million at every quarter to date), I think estimating a discrepancy of a million is more than fair, and probably will end up being an overestimate.

And even if it is 2 million, that still makes anything less than 45 million suspect to me.  We know nintendo's forecasts; we know that they are conservative.  We know that last year there were still 2 upward shipment revisions to go at this point in the year.  So why would you assume that Nintendo WON'T make its estimates this year?

I don't think a single person has come into this thread and explained why they have voted for 36-37 million. And yet there are over a hundred posters who have done just that.

C'mon...defend your vote. Someone who voted for that number must have the courage to stand before their peers and claim ownership.

I voted for the lowest wii number because people voted for the lowest PS3/360 numbers.  If the wii poll went first my vote would of been different.

Your candor is most appreciated.  So now that we've got that out of the way...

How much do you really think it will sell?

Wow. Are you 9 years old?

C'mon people. Go easy on the guy....to date he's the only one with the brass to come in here and take responsibility for the lowest option.

He deserves our support.

True, but his reasons are still childish.

He deserves to be burned. Burn him!

@alpha

If we expect 51M shipped by March 31st, then at a production rate of 2.4m/month, then we can expect ~43.8m shipped through December 31st. Now, we could assume that they will air ship 2 extra million from january's supply. So assuming you have 0.5m in stock/transmit for the Dec 31 deadline, that would leave you with a max of 45.3m units sold to customers by Dec 31.

Of course, this is with a few assumptions, mostly that they will have 2 extra million they can divert from January to December, but I honestly expect 44-45m by Dec 31.

Based on a quick glance at the numbers i would put the system at about 40.84 by the end of the year.