Poll of the Week: Wii Ltd Sales by Jan. 1, 2009

[alpha_dk]

Chrizum said:

alpha_dk said:
You guys know that Nintendo is predicting 51M (shipped) by March 31st, 2009, right?

Are you people answering <46M really expecting them to ship more than 4M in the first three months of the year? (last year that number was about 4M, and I am leaving another 1M on the shelves to account for shipped/sold discrepancies and units left on the shelf)

Honestly, to me it seems that anything less than 46 million by Jan 1st is self-delusion at best...

Shipped =/= sold, even with Nintendo.

BTW, I think of the three polls last weeks, the Nintendo one is the only one that looks like a standard normal distribution, like a good poll of this sort should have.

I guess the other two polls a) didn't have the correct vote options or b) were too heavily influenced by fanboys (probably the latter).

I know shipped != sold.  That's why I even said I left a million out for that discrepancy.  However, I think that eliminating more than a million for shipped/sold differences given the historical knowledge we have of the Wii's shipped/sold discrepancy (that is, less than a million at every quarter to date), I think estimating a discrepancy of a million is more than fair, and probably will end up being an overestimate.

And even if it is 2 million, that still makes anything less than 45 million suspect to me.  We know nintendo's forecasts; we know that they are conservative.  We know that last year there were still 2 upward shipment revisions to go at this point in the year.  So why would you assume that Nintendo WON'T make its estimates this year?