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Forums - Gaming - Brilliant Sean Mastrom's blog entry

Sky Render on 31 August 2008

I just noticed something funny. Claims go flying all the time that VG Chartz is primarily pro-Nintendo. Yet as soon as it's convenient, suddenly the Nintendo camp is in the minority here. So which is it? It can't be both. This isn't the Magical Site, where the support changes every time somebody wants to make a point.

Maybe the truth is that this site doesn't favor anybody. It's just some discussion forums where people try to act like they're part of the majority. But really, there is no majority. We're all just posting what we think, or what we want others to think. Instances of pro- and anti- sentiments appear, but only in brief bursts. Most of us say what we feel, not what some anonymous group we're a part of feels.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

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Squilliam on 31 August 2008
Soriku said:
Squilliam said:
Soriku said:
Squilliam said:
Sky Render said:
Why is it that the ones least targeted by an offering complain the most, I wonder? Maybe because they're used to being in the spotlight? Maybe because they don't think anybody else will read it but people like them? It is a mystery.

You mean Wii gamers on this forum? Since the gamers on this forum are hardcore, they are less representative of the tastes of the overall Wii population than the Xbox 360 or PS3 owners here.

 


Except most people who own a Wii are core gamers, while there is still a large part that are casuals...

 

Yep, I said less representative not unrepresentative, nor did I say that they didn't share their taste in games with a majority of the Wii audience in the Nintendo games they like. They tend to differ IMO when it comes to third party offerings.

 

Not really. The HD consoles and the Wii are getting their RPGs, or shooters, or adventure games, horror games, whatever. The only difference is that the Wii has more casual games which is a big part of the Wii's demographic, unlike the HD consoles.

Take this example

Super Mario Galaxy has sold 6.86 million and there are 1073 listed game owners

Resident Evil 4: Wii has sold 1.48 million and there are 451 listed game owners.

If this site was proportional to the Wii population then there would be either 2050 Super Mario Galaxy owners or 215 Resident evil 4 Wii owners. Therefore the tastes of the Wii owners on this site are not representative of the Wii population is a whole.

 



Tease.

noname2200 on 31 August 2008
Squilliam said:
Soriku said:
Squilliam said:
Soriku said:
Squilliam said:
Sky Render said:

 

Take this example

Super Mario Galaxy has sold 6.86 million and there are 1073 listed game owners

Resident Evil 4: Wii has sold 1.48 million and there are 451 listed game owners.

If this site was proportional to the Wii population then there would be either 2050 Super Mario Galaxy owners or 215 Resident evil 4 Wii owners. Therefore the tastes of the Wii owners on this site are not representative of the Wii population is a whole.

 

That cuts both ways, though. 452 people on this site own Halo 3 (sales 8.17 million). 428 own Metal Gear Solid 4 (sales 3.12 million).

In other words, this site doesn't represent the general population for any system. Not the Wii, not the 360, not the PS3. That's not too surprising though, seeing as how we're a self-selected sample.

 



Squilliam on 31 August 2008
noname2200 said:

Close enough for me to say agreed, so <Snip>

Tell you what, let's make an agreement. If, in one year's time, most developers are reliably profiting from HD gaming, and the tide of development has not significantly shifted to the Wii and DS because of developers' not being able to play in the HD pool, we'll both agree that Malstrom was wrong on this point, which in turn means that a part of his overall thesis was flawed. Until then, we'll both wait and see what cards the industry deals us. This doesn't mean the discussion is over: as others have been pointing out, Malstrom's analysis has quite a bit more to it, so we can continue to discuss disruption et. al. But for now, it seems we've reached a stalemate, since we're both drawing radically different conclusions from the same peices of data.

How about this, we target a specific genre - I say the shooter genre and we compare the performance of games released q3/q4 last year to this year on both platforms? Or even a Calendar year it doesn't matter. It just shaves 4 months off the time of maturity thats all. We can include things such as the number of titles, average sales between them so we can perhaps agree on a hypothesis sooner.

The shooter genre is something Malstrom argues about often both directly and indirectly. Its the arch typical HD console genre as its expensive  to develop for and exists within a crowded market place. This specifically relates to his "Ocean Theory".

 

 

 



Tease.

Squilliam on 31 August 2008
noname2200 said:
Squilliam said:
Soriku said:
Squilliam said:
Soriku said:
Squilliam said:
Sky Render said:

 

Take this example

Super Mario Galaxy has sold 6.86 million and there are 1073 listed game owners

Resident Evil 4: Wii has sold 1.48 million and there are 451 listed game owners.

If this site was proportional to the Wii population then there would be either 2050 Super Mario Galaxy owners or 215 Resident evil 4 Wii owners. Therefore the tastes of the Wii owners on this site are not representative of the Wii population is a whole.

 

That cuts both ways, though. 452 people on this site own Halo 3 (sales 8.17 million). 428 own Metal Gear Solid 4 (sales 3.12 million).

In other words, this site doesn't represent the general population for any system. Not the Wii, not the 360, not the PS3. That's not too surprising though, seeing as how we're a self-selected sample.

 


You got me! :)

Tease.

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noname2200 on 31 August 2008
Squilliam said:
noname2200 said:

How about this, we target a specific genre - I say the shooter genre and we compare the performance of games released q3/q4 last year to this year on both platforms? Or even a Calendar year it doesn't matter. It just shaves 4 months off the time of maturity thats all. We can include things such as the number of titles, average sales between them so we can perhaps agree on a hypothesis sooner.

The shooter genre is something Malstrom argues about often both directly and indirectly. Its the arch typical HD console genre as its expensive  to develop for and exists within a crowded market place. This specifically relates to his "Ocean Theory".

 

I see what you're getting at. But that would be grossly unfair to you, wouldn't it? The only shooter I can remember releasing last Q3/4 for the Wii was Medal of Honor (total sales to date: 230k), a lackluster performance that shouldn't be too hard to top by The Conduit (the only shooter I can think of releasing for the Wii Q4). By contrast, the HD consoles will have to top Call of Duty 4 (good luck with that!).

I like what you're trying to do, since it'll be a b**** to do things the way I proposed, but I don't think a single genre will be enough to cut it. How about we limit ourselves to just Q3 performance? That's the holiday season, when gamers are always out in force and publishers are doing everything they can to attract sales. It still won't be a perfect snapshot (I can think of a few objections already), but it seems like the most practical way to go about it. What do you think?

 



celine on 31 August 2008
Soriku said:
@noname

How did Disney make so much money? O_O lol the Wii and DS are uber cash cows for them. Seeing EA in the negatives is kinda weird as well.

The operating income reported for Disney was based upon its entire consumer division, not only VG.

 



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.

celine on 31 August 2008
Erik Aston said:
<3 Sky Render.

By the way what means "<3" ?

 



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.

ctk495 on 31 August 2008
celine said:
Erik Aston said:
<3 Sky Render.

By the way what means "<3" ?

 

I think it means love.

 



Squilliam on 31 August 2008
noname2200 said:
Squilliam said:
noname2200 said:

How about this, we target a specific genre - I say the shooter genre and we compare the performance of games released q3/q4 last year to this year on both platforms? Or even a Calendar year it doesn't matter. It just shaves 4 months off the time of maturity thats all. We can include things such as the number of titles, average sales between them so we can perhaps agree on a hypothesis sooner.

The shooter genre is something Malstrom argues about often both directly and indirectly. Its the arch typical HD console genre as its expensive  to develop for and exists within a crowded market place. This specifically relates to his "Ocean Theory".

 

I see what you're getting at. But that would be grossly unfair to you, wouldn't it? The only shooter I can remember releasing last Q3/4 for the Wii was Medal of Honor (total sales to date: 230k), a lackluster performance that shouldn't be too hard to top by The Conduit (the only shooter I can think of releasing for the Wii Q4). By contrast, the HD consoles will have to top Call of Duty 4 (good luck with that!).

I like what you're trying to do, since it'll be a b**** to do things the way I proposed, but I don't think a single genre will be enough to cut it. How about we limit ourselves to just Q3 4?performance? That's the holiday season, when gamers are always out in force and publishers are doing everything they can to attract sales. It still won't be a perfect snapshot (I can think of a few objections already), but it seems like the most practical way to go about it. What do you think?

 

It would be foolish to compare the Wii to the HD consoles because there are too many different factors. I was thinking of just comparing the Xbox 360/PS3 of last year to the Xbox 360/PS3 of this year. I think it needs to be at least Q3 and Q4 though I can be flexible here, is that it evens out the game release calenders to give the comparison consistancy.

There are some important factors to think about IMO.

  • Did the situation for publishers get better in an overall sense the previous year?
  • How has the average sales per game changed over that time?
  • Are the sales distributed more evenly or are they even more tightly clustered amongst few titles?
  • How many titles were released last year compared to this year?
  • What is the overall sales in the shooter genre compared to last year?

We are coming to the close of Q3 so we could do a snapshot since I intend to do a half way analysis for my prediction in my signature anyway which would help to guide us through until the end of the year.

 



Tease.