By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Squilliam on 31 August 2008
Edit Thread
noname2200 said:
Squilliam said:
noname2200 said:

How about this, we target a specific genre - I say the shooter genre and we compare the performance of games released q3/q4 last year to this year on both platforms? Or even a Calendar year it doesn't matter. It just shaves 4 months off the time of maturity thats all. We can include things such as the number of titles, average sales between them so we can perhaps agree on a hypothesis sooner.

The shooter genre is something Malstrom argues about often both directly and indirectly. Its the arch typical HD console genre as its expensive  to develop for and exists within a crowded market place. This specifically relates to his "Ocean Theory".

 

I see what you're getting at. But that would be grossly unfair to you, wouldn't it? The only shooter I can remember releasing last Q3/4 for the Wii was Medal of Honor (total sales to date: 230k), a lackluster performance that shouldn't be too hard to top by The Conduit (the only shooter I can think of releasing for the Wii Q4). By contrast, the HD consoles will have to top Call of Duty 4 (good luck with that!).

I like what you're trying to do, since it'll be a b**** to do things the way I proposed, but I don't think a single genre will be enough to cut it. How about we limit ourselves to just Q3 4?performance? That's the holiday season, when gamers are always out in force and publishers are doing everything they can to attract sales. It still won't be a perfect snapshot (I can think of a few objections already), but it seems like the most practical way to go about it. What do you think?

 

It would be foolish to compare the Wii to the HD consoles because there are too many different factors. I was thinking of just comparing the Xbox 360/PS3 of last year to the Xbox 360/PS3 of this year. I think it needs to be at least Q3 and Q4 though I can be flexible here, is that it evens out the game release calenders to give the comparison consistancy.

There are some important factors to think about IMO.

  • Did the situation for publishers get better in an overall sense the previous year?
  • How has the average sales per game changed over that time?
  • Are the sales distributed more evenly or are they even more tightly clustered amongst few titles?
  • How many titles were released last year compared to this year?
  • What is the overall sales in the shooter genre compared to last year?

We are coming to the close of Q3 so we could do a snapshot since I intend to do a half way analysis for my prediction in my signature anyway which would help to guide us through until the end of the year.

 



Tease.