| The Ghost of RubangB said: Last week was a bit of a letdown, with no % gains, so it put my projections off a bit, but don't worry, it's still gonna break 50% by Christmas or I'll kill myself. |
Tox clause
You realize that watching the percentage increase makes no sense at all mathematically. Here's a very simple mathematic number:
The Wii needs to outsell the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined by more than 220,000 units per week on average in order to reach 50% this year.
This week the Wii outsold the PS360 by 43396 units and was more than 176604 units short of being on pace to reach 50% by the year's end. To be on pace for 50%, it would have had to sell 482024 units this week. During a better week for the PS360, it would have to sell more units to coincide with how many more units the PS360 sold. With the impending 360 price drop and the consistently improving performance of the PS3, the Wii could very well have to average well over 600K units/week by the end of September to be on pace.
To give you an idea of how insurmountable 50% has become -- if the Wii is this short of its goal over the next 5 weeks selling only about 44,000 more than the PS360 (which seems like it will be the likely case) the Wii would then have to sell more than 290,000 units per week to catch up.
Look, I've been predicting that the Wii may reach 50% this year since January -- I made the first thread on it. But it's not gonna happen -- the Wii isn't approaching the number nearly fast enough. Even if the Wii sells 5 million units in December, which will not happen this year, and the PS360 only sell 2 million units combined, which also will not happen, the Wii would come up short.
So you can't possibly say that the Wii will have a huge holiday to pass the PS360. Even an unbelievably big holiday for the Wii and an unbelievably bad holiday for the PS360 wouldn't do it.









