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Forums - Sales - Number of estimated Wii's sold every month.

Yet supposedly they are ramping up production. They are keeping supplies low to increase demand...



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I have another explaination ...

Three Week Floating Averages for worldwide weekly Wii sales in 2007:

2007-01-14 272,342
2007-01-21 254,404
2007-01-28 246,230
2007-02-04 235,274
2007-02-11 222,031
2007-02-18 220,725
2007-02-25 212,973
2007-03-04 199,927
2007-03-11 186,376
2007-03-18 188,210
2007-03-25 184,261
2007-04-01 177,887
2007-04-08 173,420
2007-04-15 191,754
2007-04-22 228,587
2007-04-29 257,818
2007-05-06 261,594
2007-05-13 238,135
2007-05-20 218,275
2007-05-27 220,532
2007-06-03 225,474
2007-06-10 230,692
2007-06-17 224,194
2007-06-24 225,246

 

Now if you take those averages as a percentage of the average worldwide weekly total you get:

 

2007-01-14 121.8%
2007-01-21 113.8%
2007-01-28 110.2%
2007-02-04 105.3%
2007-02-11 99.3%
2007-02-18 98.8%
2007-02-25 95.3%
2007-03-04 89.4%
2007-03-11 83.4%
2007-03-18 84.2%
2007-03-25 82.4%
2007-04-01 79.6%
2007-04-08 77.6%
2007-04-15 85.8%
2007-04-22 102.3%
2007-04-29 115.3%
2007-05-06 117.0%
2007-05-13 106.5%
2007-05-20 97.7%
2007-05-27 98.7%
2007-06-03 100.9%
2007-06-10 103.2%
2007-06-17 100.3%
2007-06-24 100.8%

Now, I could be wrong but I suspect the reason why numbers were higher through January was that Nintendo was shipping stockpiled units from Japan in an attempt to satisfy 'launch demand'. February and (early) March's 90% number (potentially) represents Nintendo's actual manufacturing capacity at the time. In March (and through April) Nintendo could have been upgrading facilities which would have (potentially) lowered manufacturing capacity at the time but enabled them to produce far more systems for April.

We could be seeing Nintendo (once again) upgrading existing facilities (or moving manufacturing to larger facilities) in order to boost production. The timing would make sense because the Quarter is at an end and Nintendo would be able to announce it at E3 ... 



Linkzmax said:
The week of may 6 through the week of june 3rd is actually 35 days.

Edit:
densiyrex, mistakenly, is counting from May 6th to June 3rd instead of the weeks, which is why he's getting 29 days instead of 35.



May period should be from 30 april till 3 june which would be 35 days (5 weeks = 35 days). June period is from 4 june till 1 july (4 weeks) which is 28 days as you said.



ckmlb said:
Yet supposedly they are ramping up production. They are keeping supplies low to increase demand...

 Its either withold units now for the holidays or nothing. Whether or not it actually increases demand is a whole different story that could be argued for an eternity. But one thing is for sure. Come christmas, there will be 3 countries starving for more than just a measly 65k units per week. And with them being suply constrained the entire year, if they want to even come close to having a decent amount of hardware to launch beside smash metroid and galaxy in both Japan and the US, they are going to HAVE to start holding back some hardware. Otherwise those games will launch and the supply will be just as bad as it is now. Which would be a disaster when your putting out yout 3 biggest titles across the globe.

Hardware needs to be available for those launches. 



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Xyrax said:
ckmlb said:
Yet supposedly they are ramping up production. They are keeping supplies low to increase demand...

Its either withold units now for the holidays or nothing. Whether or not it actually increases demand is a whole different story that could be argued for an eternity. But one thing is for sure. Come christmas, there will be 3 countries starving for more than just a measly 65k units per week. And with them being suply constrained the entire year, if they want to even come close to having a decent amount of hardware to launch beside smash metroid and galaxy in both Japan and the US, they are going to HAVE to start holding back some hardware. Otherwise those games will launch and the supply will be just as bad as it is now. Which would be a disaster when your putting out yout 3 biggest titles across the globe.

Hardware needs to be available for those launches.


Just to add to your point ... 

On average 40% to 60% of hardware sales are made in Q4 of any given year. If you take sales in 2007 and estimate sales for Q1 through Q3 you realize that Nintendo needs somewhere between 2.5 and 5 Million Wii systems available for Chrismas in North America alone; I expect that if Nintendo has less than 5 Million units shipped in Q4 2007 (worldwide) there will be massive shortages and scalping.



Dolla Dolla said:
Linkzmax said:
The week of may 6 through the week of june 3rd is actually 35 days.

Edit:
densiyrex, mistakenly, is counting from May 6th to June 3rd instead of the weeks, which is why he's getting 29 days instead of 35.


Sorry, Dolla Dolla you always seem to be a bright person. But how can I count 29 days and miss 6 days when I used my pc calendar to count every day. What am I doing wrong ( could be I am tired or something don't really see an error at all in my day calculation) I am not stating months but periods.

Nice to see people actually care about my info that's nice to know and I will keep doing it.

Keep it going I always like the discussions on here thought I would participate on it by bringing my own input.

Planning to go to bed soon though tiresome weekend and lately work/workload is killing me for the dutch people. I make sure you get your paper and the trains still drive ( well if prorail cooperates )

I work at the IT servicedesk for ProRail and PCM Uitgevers to make sure their pcs and servers are up and running.



 

 

 

 

densiyrex said:

Sorry, Dolla Dolla you always seem to be a bright person. But how can I count 29 days and miss 6 days when I used my pc calendar to count every day. What am I doing wrong ( could be I am tired or something don't really see an error at all in my day calculation) I am not stating months but periods.

Definitely keep the information coming, it's nice to see the breakdowns.

And, you're counting the days correctly: May 6th to June 3rd is most certainly 29 days.

But ...!

In your analysis, you are counting weeks.

The week of May 6th is 7 days worth of sales
The week of May 13th is 7 days worth of sales
The week of May 20th is 7 days worth of sales
The week of May 27th is 7 days worth of sales
The week of June 3rd is 7 days worth of sales

Therefore, the analysis is 35 days. See?



...any analysis, particularly one aimed to be critical about any console, immediately loses all credibility in my eyes when the person reporting it can't do basic math.

Five weeks is 35 days. How is this a confusing concept.

If you drop the To May 6 week numbers, you get

May 7 - June 3 (28 days): 891,703
June 4 - July 1 (28 days): 899,736

It's actually selling better. Check your numbers before you make claims like this again.

 

 

EDIT: I'll even do you one better by re-calculating the breakdown.

Japan:
5/7-6/3: 246,185
6/4-7/1: 273,502
Difference: +27,317
Net Change: +11.1%

America:
5/7-6/3: 397,313
6/4-7/1: 359,861
Difference: -37,452
Net Change: -9.4%

Other:
5/7-6/3: 248,205
6/4-7/1: 266,373
Difference: +18,168
Net Change: +7.3%

Total:
5/7-6/3: 891,703
6/4-7/1: 899,736
Difference: +8,033
Net Change: +0.9%

 

Conclusion: None.  The sales rate is, for all intents and purposes, the same in June as in May.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Dolla Dolla said:
densiyrex said:

Sorry, Dolla Dolla you always seem to be a bright person. But how can I count 29 days and miss 6 days when I used my pc calendar to count every day. What am I doing wrong ( could be I am tired or something don't really see an error at all in my day calculation) I am not stating months but periods.

Definitely keep the information coming, it's nice to see the breakdowns.

And, you're counting the days correctly: May 6th to June 3rd is most certainly 29 days.

But ...!

In your analysis, you are counting weeks.

The week of May 6th is 7 days worth of sales
The week of May 13th is 7 days worth of sales
The week of May 20th is 7 days worth of sales
The week of May 27th is 7 days worth of sales
The week of June 3rd is 7 days worth of sales

Therefore, the analysis is 35 days. See?


Ah, I get it now. I shouldnt have done the week breakdown.

 

@witeoutking, thanks for the criticism if you can do it better be my guest.

I never said I was a math genius I just thought it would be fun to have a breakdown every periode.

If someone can do it better ( and can spend the time takes about a hour to do ) then please do so.