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Forums - Sales - HD Console sales break down for when or if the PS3 will pass the Xbox 360.

JaggedSac on 26 August 2008
steven787 said:

Past 52 weeks:

Console PS3 X360
Total
10,582,669
9,570,108

PS3 sold 1,012,561 more than the 360.

Past 26 weeks:

Console PS3 X360
Total
4,766,767
3,634,823

PS3 sold 1,131,944 more than the 360.

That's an average of 43536 per week for the past 6 months.

Past 13 weeks:

Console PS3 X360
Total
2,308,280
1,771,517

PS3 sold 536,763 more than the 360.

That's an average of  41289 per week for the past 3 months.

 

If you take out MGS4 week, and divide by 12, the average is ~35250.  If you take out the two following weeks it becomes ~15k.

 

Now let's take 5,460,000 million that the 360 has as a lead over the PS3 for LTD and divide it by 41289.

5,460,000/41289 = 132 weeks. 30 months. 2.5 years.  If the PS3 keeps this average.

 

I don't think the PS3 will keep this average through January, because of the 360 price cut and how attractive it becomes as a gift for the kids.  So I will extend that to 2.75 years.

For Sony to "catch up" in:

  • 18 months it would take 75k per week.
  • 24 months it would take 57k per week.
  • 12 months it would take 113k per week.

 

So IF it happens it probably won't until 2-3 years away.

Will it matter?

Nice post.  I was gonna do the weekly differences needed by the PS3 to catch up, but now I do not have to.

 



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Kasz216 on 26 August 2008
Kyros said:
if you read the OPs post he also post the numbers it would take for the PS3 to surpass the 360 in 24months, 18 months, and 12 months. If


Eh yes. But he also pretty clearly says that he thinks it will take 2.75 years based on his computations. Which are useless. So this assumption is equally useless. Which makes the thread pretty pointless.
Things will not stay the same. Look at the PSP in Japan which suddenly took off like a rocket in sales. One important reason one game Monster Hunter. Or the PS2 which multiplied sales after it got cheaper. Perhaps the 360 gets a cool motion controller and outsells the PS3 or the PS3 will multiply sales after a price-drop. Who knows. In both cases making assumptions by extrapolating the past are useless.

PSP went up like a rocket before the MH2 expansion released.  Mostly for non-gaming functional portable means it would seem.  Like Skype.



xman on 26 August 2008
steven787 said:

Past 52 weeks:

Console PS3 X360
Total
10,582,669
9,570,108

PS3 sold 1,012,561 more than the 360.

Past 26 weeks:

Console PS3 X360
Total
4,766,767
3,634,823

PS3 sold 1,131,944 more than the 360.

That's an average of 43536 per week for the past 6 months.

Past 13 weeks:

Console PS3 X360
Total
2,308,280
1,771,517

PS3 sold 536,763 more than the 360.

That's an average of  41289 per week for the past 3 months.

 

If you take out MGS4 week, and divide by 12, the average is ~35250.  If you take out the two following weeks it becomes ~15k.

 

Now let's take 5,460,000 million that the 360 has as a lead over the PS3 for LTD and divide it by 41289.

5,460,000/41289 = 132 weeks. 30 months. 2.5 years.  If the PS3 keeps this average.

 

I don't think the PS3 will keep this average through January, because of the 360 price cut and how attractive it becomes as a gift for the kids.  So I will extend that to 2.75 years.

For Sony to "catch up" in:

  • 18 months it would take 75k per week.
  • 24 months it would take 57k per week.
  • 12 months it would take 113k per week.

 

So IF it happens it probably won't until 2-3 years away.

Will it matter?

 

I think you had it right will it matter?  NO second and third will be so close that 3ed party support will be split evenly this liefecycle.



PS3, WII and 360 all great systems depends on what type of console player you are.

Currently playing Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2, Fallout 3, Halo ODST and Dragon Age Origins is next game

Xbox live:mywiferocks

Kasz216 on 26 August 2008
xenophon13 said:
What kind of statistics did you take? You don't just drop out the 3 highest months because you think that makes since in your head. If you drop anything your drop the highest and the lowest to get rid of possible anomalies. you don't just drop the highest, thats poor math. And games released that provide spikes increase the overall amount yes? so they should be included.

That's only true when there might be unknown anomalies.

When you know for a fact that there are confounding variables (MGS4 artificial inflating) there is no reason you can't remove the data.



Kyros on 26 August 2008

he took the time to break down multiple scenarios and actually provided verifiable statistical numbers.


Personally I think we have too many analysts on this forum. I still think that below all the statistic the key sentence was "The PS3 will take at least 2-3 years to reach the 360". And seriously unless Sony really fucks it up or MS has some hidden gems in its arsenal (more than Sony), this is a very unlikely scenario.
Supporting this thing with a pretty much useless statistic doesn't make it better even if the statistic itself may be mathematically correct.



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MonstaMack on 26 August 2008
libellule said:
Jason77 said:
anyone think PS3 40G wont have a price cut ??

is the any reason for sony to keep 40G same price with 80G model
or there will be a surprise price cut.

 

 ==> 40gb will disappear ... no price cut.

It already had a price cut/reduction at Wal-Mart retail to $350.

 

Basically the OP did some good math, and based on current trends, as predicted by many, *IF* the PS3 wins it won't be till early 2010 at the earliest. With the 360 price cut, US wise, they will have enough of an increase in sales to make up for their losing in Japan/Euope to make 2010 more likely. Let's not forget by 2011 the 720 should be out, or 2010.

 



It's just that simple.

crumas2 on 26 August 2008
makingmusic476 said:
crumas2 said:
makingmusic476 said:

Assuming the ps3 continues to outsell the 360 by a similar percentage over the coming holiday as it has over the rest of the year, then the ps3 could shave off almost a million of the 360's lead over this November and December alone.

 

The key word is bolded.

 

There goes the whole thread...

I'm blushing... you give me too much credit.  As witty and clever as my response was, surely it wasn't so succinct, so incredibly conclusive as to render pointless any further comment in the thread.

Again, I thank you for such kind words, but I'm truly undeserving of such unabashed praise.

 

 



Darc Requiem on 26 August 2008
crumas2 said:
Darc Requiem said:
Kyros my whole issue with your response to the OP comes down to this. You responded to his post like it was a one line trollish remark. He took the time to break down multiple scenarios and actually provided verifiable statistical numbers.

I respect the fact that you disagree with his opinion. Heck all of the incorrect suppositions by industry analyst prior to this gen supports your point of view. It shows that predicting the future is a crap shoot at best, but I am not gonna roast a guy for saying he believes something will happen when provides a detailed explanation as to why.

I would even go one step further and say that the OP simply put the numbers on the table, showed a timeline based on extrapolation, then asked for an honest discourse.  He got a few really good comments, but mostly just insults from those who don't like anything that even hints at the PS3 having to clear large hurdles to pass the 360.

I've just started ignoring most of these posters as very little of what they post actually provides any useful information.

 

I may have to take a similar stance. Don't know if I can hold my tongue all the time though.

 



halogamer1989 on 26 August 2008
rocketpig said:
I love these threads. The OP posts numbers and the PS3 fanboys come out of the woodwork and scream "u r teh WRONG!!1" because of the blinders they're putting on to cover up the harsh realities of the world.

There were hordes of PS3 owners last year screaming about how the PS3 would pass the 360 in 2008... Well, that ain't gonna happen. Now a few of them are screaming about 2009. Chances are, that won't happen either.

Don't let reality get in the way of your hopes and dreams, folks. Ignore those numbers and the looming 360 price cut and keep on *knowing* that any day now, the PS3 is going to capture the hearts and minds of the general public.

FYI, I think the PS3 will pass the 360 ultimately... Right around the time it stops mattering to Microsoft. They'll be preparing for a new console and the 360 will take a back seat to new offerings. In any case, MS has made large strides this generation and Sony has lost an enormous amount of ground.

Well said.  The Hulk gif is awesome BTW.

 



JaggedSac on 26 August 2008