Past 52 weeks:

PS3 sold 1,012,561 more than the 360.

Past 26 weeks:

PS3 sold 1,131,944 more than the 360.

That's an average of 43536 per week for the past 6 months.

Past 13 weeks:

PS3 sold 536,763 more than the 360.

That's an average of  41289 per week for the past 3 months.

If you take out MGS4 week, and divide by 12, the average is ~35250.  If you take out the two following weeks it becomes ~15k.

Now let's take 5,460,000 million that the 360 has as a lead over the PS3 for LTD and divide it by 41289.

5,460,000/41289 = 132 weeks. 30 months. 2.5 years.  If the PS3 keeps this average.

I don't think the PS3 will keep this average through January, because of the 360 price cut and how attractive it becomes as a gift for the kids.  So I will extend that to 2.75 years.

For Sony to "catch up" in:

• 18 months it would take 75k per week.
• 24 months it would take 57k per week.
• 12 months it would take 113k per week.

So IF it happens it probably won't until 2-3 years away.

Will it matter?

Nice breakdown

You're going to get flamed though.

Therefore, I'll try to be as positive as at all possible :)

Well done! Awesome! Incredible!

Wait, is being IN credible positive? Not credible?

No it's IN as in "a trait that can't be separated from the subject" like inflammable.

Seriously though, I purposely filled the post with numbers and facts to keep fanboys of either party away. I really want to discuss this. Is 80k/week possible? Is 40k? Will it matters when it happens?

I think 40k/week MIGHT be possible, but I don't think 80k is. And when/if it happens, I don't think it'll matter.

But see, in a ten year life cycle, 40k a week is a lot, it's incredible.

First of all, check your subtraction for the past 52 weeks.

Ignoring the 3 weeks after MGSIV was released then you must also remove the 3 weeks that the 360 did best - that's only fair.

And even then, i don't think you maths is valid. Historically the 3rd year is the year in which a console has the highest sales - so in 2009 360 sales should drop and PS3 sales should rise

Thanks it was a mistake, I must have copy/pasted wrong it wrong it's 1,012,561 or about 20k/week (if I remember correctly),  all the other numbers should be right.  I just inserted them into a spreadsheet.

(I'm editing it, it said 12,561 it is 1,012,561.)

these trends will chnge with the differences in exclusives and price

My personal bet is that it will happen around Christmas 2009.

This Christmas the boosts will be relative, so the PS3 could catch up by over 100k per week (Christmas being last 6 weeks)... then in the new year it will natuarally fall back down to 40-50k per week, but slowly increasing across the year (PS3s 3rd year and X360s 4th) to nearly 100k per week by November... then a bit more to finally catch up during December.


If not then then it should manage it within that fiscal year (before April 2010)

Christmas 2008 Ps3 will overtake the X360 in total worldwide console sales.