http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=19877

The Divnich Tapes: Wii Supply Still Constrained, But Not For Long

[Continuing his Gamasutra-exclusive NPD analysis following the release of July's game sales figures EEDAR's director of analytical services Jesse Divnich notes that, though Wii supply was still constrained in the previous month, Nintendo is close to meeting consumer demand before the holiday season.

Previously: Disappointing Xbox 360 hardware sales, despite a discounted Pro model.]

Many have raised the question as to whether July’s results for the Nintendo Wii are an indication that supply is finally outpacing demand.

Fortunately, for Nintendo, what looks like a decline in demand is in reality the same scenario that has played out for the last year -- supply is still constrained.



Using figures from pricing data site Video Game Price Charts, we can see that on reseller markets, Wii hardware is still selling above retail MSRP.

In fact, we estimate that over 15,000 Wii hardware units were sold through eBay alone in July, a significant amount.



Add in other reseller sites, and that number easily surpasses 20,000 units. I find it hard to believe that, on average, 20,000 consumers would pay prices above MSRP if the hardware were easily accessible at all North American game retailers.

While demand is still strong, we are noticing a continued decline in the gray market price, which is a good indication that supply and demand are close to equilibrium. Given the trend, it is likely that supply will finally outpace demand before the holiday season.

However, keep in mind that this potential supply glut would be within a very small window, as demand for Wii hardware in November and December will likely outpace supply once again.

[Jesse Divnich currently serves as the director of analytical services at Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR). The preceding is the views and opinions of one person and not of EEDAR, The simExchange, GamerMetrics, or Gametrailers.]

15,000 in one month on ebay eh. Wouldn't that mean people want to get rid of it?

Yes. It's this hatred and disappointment with the console which has driven the resale price above the retail price. People are willing to pay more for the console just to relieve the suffering of the console seller.

 I think the majority of that is people buying the Wii with the intent of making a profit from reselling it on Ebay.

Duh. Sucks to fail at trolling. More than 90% of consoles sold on Ebay & Amazon are NEW :)

 It also means people want to buy it.

People get good at this if givin enough time to adapt. A person who goes to my school has sold more than 20 Wiis online since its launch (and a few PS3s right around its launch too). He used to camp out on the weekends for them and then sell them during the week for some extra cash. I'm sure there are people or even retailers that are doing this a lot.

Bad attempt Gearbox, need to think something better. Even if it was true 15,000 out of 555,000 is not bad at all.

Major Fail.

Gearbox, you fail so hard. You can't even troll right dumbass. I mean, do you see the Ps3 selling that much on Ebay? Didn't think so. The fact that the Wii is selling that good, when most of them are new in the first place, only shows its impressive sales.

So...yeah...nice try.

HAHAHAHAHAHA poor tro...i mean, gearbox, everyone just slap the shit out of him xD i feel sorry 4 that guy =( its not fair.... 6 vs 1...oh well

It'd be pretty funny if, in October, equillibrium was met with shipment-to-sales, only to have it go haywire again in November and December.

With any luck, maybe this means that different colored systems or new bundles (mit harddrive!!) will start arriving.

If, and only IF, Nintendo does manage to snag that precious equillibrium by this winter, or early 2009, then there may actually be a price cut by summer 2009. Oh man, 2009 is when the first wave of truly interesting highly-hyped titles will start showing up... Ha ha, finally, the gamers will start buying the Wii as well as the Blue Ocean noobs!

It'll be all sold out again!