"In the sony vs microsoft console war all you need to imagine is marketshare.

Marketshare in 2005 - 70% sony - 15% microsoft

Marketshare in 2008 - 30% microsoft - 22% sony

Analysts can pretend they see the future all they want, but this is reality."

Ahh market share, many people seem to get it confused. Unfortunately I doubt that all 100 million+ PS2 owners just up and threw their console away the second the 360 hit the market. Certainly the Playstation 3 is in third but the fact that they are outselling the cheaper 360 in a world economy like the one we got (read horrible) speaks volumes. And I thought that Nintendo was getting seniors and parents to buy their system so its technically not taking market share away from Sony or Microsoft. Which begs the question where are the 100+ million gamers at? People can't possibly be holding onto their PS2 because hi-def graphics is all gamers care about thats why no one is buying a DS or Wii. PS2 had disk read errors certainly so their 120 million includes repurchases... and what about RRODs? The 3 year warranty wasn't handed down from on high on day one before many people bought their 3rd/5th 360s which is telling about the "actual size" of the  360 user base.

Sony is going to win because they are following Nintendos playbook, make 1st party games, sell systems. Even when they are losing money on the PS3 they finance Media Molecule (Little Big Planet) buy Guerilla Games, buy that company that made MotoStorm and finance David Jaffe's - new company Eat Sleep Play. Oh and he's a good friend of Ted Price CEO of Isomaniac. Sony can't possibly be trying to turn Jaffe into another 2nd party like Iso... no way makes far too much sense. 

With more 1st party studios then the competition combined, and they continue to purchase more >hi Level 5< Sony's in no trouble. Because in the end thats its all about the games and when your biggest sellers are single genres (party games/FPS) then you got something to worry about. Thats my take.

If you convince yourself that the lies are truths. And then you start to believe they are truths. They are indeed truths.

It does not matter what everyone else think.

Uh ... the PS3 has been on the market for more than one year, my friend. Since 2006. It's now 2008, and Sony will be going into it's 2nd COMPLETE christmas season. It experienced it's 1st complete christmas in all territories just last year. So it's taken them longer than a year to cut the lead down to 5.5 million.

The article is one sided and loaded with stuff I'd expect to hear from MikeB. If the 360 is a crumbling tower, it'll take Sony another couple years to bring it down completely. The only mystery left is how well LBP will perform for Sony, and if it will live up to being a true mascot in the vein of Mario or Master Chief.

Good read, some really good points.

Kyros is quoting me...

So how many consoles do you think will sell by 2010 (five years from the release of the 360), Kyros?  Tell us.

I thinik it's inevitable that the ps3's library will surpass the 360's in terms of exclusives (even though this is a very subjective argument).

The majority of Sony's exclusives come from it's own first parties.  The majority of the 360's exclusives come from third parties, many of which go multiplat after any exclusivity contracts have ended (like Eternal Sonata and Bioshock). 

While MS does have some first and second parties, they have actually been getting weaker in this regard over the past year.  BioWare was bought by EA, Bizarre has been bought by Activision, and Team Ninja is now defunct (though MS only published Ninja Gaiden II for Team Ninja, they were Xbox exclusive for all intents and purposes).  All the while Sony continues to grow their own first parties, as shown through their aquisition of Evolution Studios early last year.

Things are not looking so rosey on the MS side of things.

Of course, MS and Mistwalker seem to be handily taking the JRPG front, and Sony + Level 5 just won't be able to compete unless Sony buys Level 5, forcing them to stop spending so much time on the DS.  Or Sony could form an internal team at SCEI to start pumping out JRPGs, like the Legend of Dragoon way back in the day, but the legend of Dragoon guys have all moved on (many to Feel+, the guys that Mistwalker got to work on Lost Odyssey, ironically).

 Right now, I could say the exact same thing on the opposite side. microsoft is probably saving more money by getting thrid parties it seems then using first parties to make games. therefore they can easily pay for more 3rd party games.

When i see any evidence of this "inevitability", I'll let you all know. until then, I tend not to leave things like this up to chance. 

The gap between the ps3 and 360 was around 7 million after the launch of Halo 3 last year.  Prior to that, the gap between the ps3 and 360 had only been growing. 

Since October of last year, the ps3 has shaved off almost 2 million units from the gap between it and the 360, and it is  this to which he is referring.

You missed my point.  Third party exclusives aren't guaranteed exclusive, especially since exclusivity contracts generally run for only 6 months, sometimes a year (as was the case with Bioshock this gen, and GTA last gen).

Internally developed exclusives, or those published by Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft, will always be exclusive.