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Forums - Sales - Interesting NPD analysis

DMeisterJ on 18 August 2008

It's confusing though.

As numbers could easily overlap.

I'm a Wii60 owner, as many people are (looking at sales), so it'd be nice to see the numbers not-overlapped, since it doesn't paint a clear picture.



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TheBigFatJ on 18 August 2008
HappySqurriel said:
Obliterator1700 said: 

 

You missed the point, your asking why it sells more sw then ps3? I answered that...It's like asking what sells more Dvd movies or Blue-Rar movies? The answer is quite obvious. I never tried to prove you wrong, rather that its a ridiculous question to ask is been why I answered with, well, lets see here... If you look closely at what he said in his second sentence you would have known that his addressing it on his point of view, not everyones.

 

Well, I think you missed Soriku's point ...

Diomedes1976 has claimed (on several occasions) that a large percentage of Wii owners do not actually play the Wii systems they bought, and that they're only collecting dust; I don't remember if it was him, but in the past there have also been countless posters who then claimed that the people who do use their Wiis are only playing Wii Sports.

If there is a large number of Wii owners who don't play Wii games then the userbase advantage of the Wii shouldn't translate into a software sales advantage; for the most part the Wii sells a similar ammount of software per system to the PS3/XBox 360 which means that the ratio of Wii owners who bought their Wii as a 'Novelty' is similar to the ratio of PS3/XBox 360 owners who bought their system as a 'Novelty'.

 

Yes, I'd say this is generally true.  If you search craigslist for systems, there are a lot of people who say they're selling a system because they're bored of it.  There are a lot of 360 owners and a lot of Wii owners who say the same thing.  The big difference is that the Wii owners are selling for more than retail still.

The fact is that the Wii is selling a lot of software despite the packed game.  If you have a free game, especially something with as much life as Wii Sports, that means you're less likely to buy an extra game.  Despite this, the Wii is selling a lot of software and as the system ages it seems the attatch ratio continues to improve as you'd expect.



libellule on 18 August 2008

19+18+10 = 47%

so +63% are waiting for upgrade ...

and u can't guess which console they will buy !!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

EDIT : well u can still guess ... but it is 50% win, 50% lose.

(also I DO BELIEVE, Playsation Brand is still a VERY strong (VERY VERY strong) brand name in the industry EVEN for the casual people ...)



Time to Work !

koffieboon on 18 August 2008
Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:

If anything, I would expect the ratio (again, ~16%) to drop even closer to the average consumer population.

We can safely assume the hardcore Sony faithful have largely bought in to the new system; the people that are still playing with a PS2 would be casual players, and casual players do not tend to have affinity for any particular company.

In other words, if even the hardcore, buy-a-new-system-within-the-first-year-or-so players are showing only a slight preference, then I think the casual PS2 owners will be even less preferential towards the PS3. I wouldn't be surprised to see the average PS2 owner end up skewing towards the PS3 by less than 10%, from the 16% it's at now.

Not to nitpick but I did go through the hassle of hunting down LTD NPD numbers through July to get the exact numbers.

PS2 owners:

Are  3.60% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
Are  2.64% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
Are 13.60% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

Doesn't change your point really, although it may (or may not) lower your estimate.

I think you should actually use the LTD numbers through January 2008 instead of July. I'm almost 100% sure the information is coming from the same study as the one mentioned in this press release by NPD:

http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_080811.html

It also mentions only 10% of PS2 owners have upgraded to PS3 and it states the data is collected from January 11-February 5.

 



Obliterator1700 on 18 August 2008

@Sc

Everybody don't recall. I never missed the point. I told Soriku, I'm not trying to prove you wrong...

@Soriku

I'll agree, but I'll say this everything gets old including the ps3,360.

@Happy

I missed no point. I said, the answer is quite obvious. I never tried to prove you wrong, rather that its a ridiculous question to ask is been why I answered with, well, lets see here. You missed the point I made in my post which I think Soriku only understood.



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TheSource on 18 August 2008

Yeah Koffie is right..the study was likely conducted in January.

So you have to figure a higher number of PS2 owners own PS3/360 now because of GTAIV/DMC4/MGS4/NCAA and a few others.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Kasz216 on 18 August 2008
Bodhesatva said:

If anything, I would expect the ratio (again, ~16%) to drop even closer to the average consumer population.

We can safely assume the hardcore Sony faithful have largely bought in to the new system; the people that are still playing with a PS2 would be casual players, and casual players do not tend to have affinity for any particular company.

In other words, if even the hardcore, buy-a-new-system-within-the-first-year-or-so players are showing only a slight preference, then I think the casual PS2 owners will be even less preferential towards the PS3. I wouldn't be surprised to see the average PS2 owner end up skewing towards the PS3 by less than 10%, from the 16% it's at now.


That's what i'm  sayin.



Kasz216 on 18 August 2008
MikeB said:

@ Kasz216

Combined the gamecube and Xbox sold 30 million consoles each... (about.) What percentage of these people do you believe owned PS2s?


According to a Nielsen study 45.7 million households had consoles in them in the last quarter of 2006 (serving about 93.8 million people). They included any type of console connected to a TV set, so that could be a Coleco Vision, Sega Dreamcast, Wii, PS1, PS3, Snes, etc.

PS2 hardware shipment for the whole of Norh America by 2006: 46.53 million

Let's say about 35-40 million of these were connected to a TV set in the US (playing pirates or original games, second hand, repaired, brand new, etc) in households. That does seem to suggest a high percentage of dual console setups amongst households which have consoles other than the PS2.

Assuming this study and figures are roughly representative, ~40 million PS2s + ~27 million XBs/GCs (relative a very strong market for the XBox compared to worldwide) = ~67 million (~144%), so this seems to suggest it could well be a good majority of US households which had a PS2 next to a XBox and/or GameCube. (Note the US console penetration figure could be a lot lower if Nielsen would have excluded older gaming systems like the NES, Snes, PS1, DC, etc, IMO it would have been interesting if they would have broke up their figures by used platform as well)

That all seems like a whole lot of math based on nothing then... as it seems the PS2 is almost always ahead of total hooked up TVs.

Either less people keep their machines hooked up then thought, or a lot of peopel bought new PS2s after theirs broke.

Like me.  I bought 3-4 PS2s at this point... and only 1 of them is hooked up.



Obliterator1700 on 18 August 2008
Kazsz216 said:
MikeB said:

@ Kasz216

Combined the gamecube and Xbox sold 30 million consoles each... (about.) What percentage of these people do you believe owned PS2s?


According to a Nielsen study 45.7 million households had consoles in them in the last quarter of 2006 (serving about 93.8 million people). They included any type of console connected to a TV set, so that could be a Coleco Vision, Sega Dreamcast, Wii, PS1, PS3, Snes, etc.

PS2 hardware shipment for the whole of Norh America by 2006: 46.53 million

Let's say about 35-40 million of these were connected to a TV set in the US (playing pirates or original games, second hand, repaired, brand new, etc) in households. That does seem to suggest a high percentage of dual console setups amongst households which have consoles other than the PS2.

Assuming this study and figures are roughly representative, ~40 million PS2s + ~27 million XBs/GCs (relative a very strong market for the XBox compared to worldwide) = ~67 million (~144%), so this seems to suggest it could well be a good majority of US households which had a PS2 next to a XBox and/or GameCube. (Note the US console penetration figure could be a lot lower if Nielsen would have excluded older gaming systems like the NES, Snes, PS1, DC, etc, IMO it would have been interesting if they would have broke up their figures by used platform as well)

That all seems like a whole lot of math based on nothing then... as it seems the PS2 is almost always ahead of total hooked up TVs.

Either less people keep their machines hooked up then thought, or a lot of peopel bought new PS2s after theirs broke.

Like me.  I bought 3-4 PS2s at this point... and only 1 of them is hooked up.

I'm assuming he means this Kaz...BTW congratz on proving me wrong...

http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2007/03/05/sony-nintendo-and-game-makers-make-significant-progress-but-theres-more-to-do-in-console-gaming/

 OR

 

http://news.cnet.com/Study-U.S.-game-console-ownership-rising-rapidly/2100-1043_3-6164274.html?hhTest=1

 



Kasz216 on 18 August 2008
DMeisterJ said:
It's confusing though.

As numbers could easily overlap.

I'm a Wii60 owner, as many people are (looking at sales), so it'd be nice to see the numbers not-overlapped, since it doesn't paint a clear picture.

Well people with PS3's were the most likely to own two systems!

Even though that study just looked like a simple percentage arguement.