Sqrl said:
Bodhesatva said:
If anything, I would expect the ratio (again, ~16%) to drop even closer to the average consumer population.
We can safely assume the hardcore Sony faithful have largely bought in to the new system; the people that are still playing with a PS2 would be casual players, and casual players do not tend to have affinity for any particular company.
In other words, if even the hardcore, buy-a-new-system-within-the-first-year-or-so players are showing only a slight preference, then I think the casual PS2 owners will be even less preferential towards the PS3. I wouldn't be surprised to see the average PS2 owner end up skewing towards the PS3 by less than 10%, from the 16% it's at now.
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Not to nitpick but I did go through the hassle of hunting down LTD NPD numbers through July to get the exact numbers.
PS2 owners:
Are 3.60% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
Are 2.64% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
Are 13.60% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer
Doesn't change your point really, although it may (or may not) lower your estimate.
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I think you should actually use the LTD numbers through January 2008 instead of July. I'm almost 100% sure the information is coming from the same study as the one mentioned in this press release by NPD:
http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_080811.html
It also mentions only 10% of PS2 owners have upgraded to PS3 and it states the data is collected from January 11-February 5.
