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Forums - Sales - My Final Fantasy XIII Prediction

blazinhead89 on 13 August 2008
Arkk said:
blazinhead89 said:
ZenfoldorVGI said:
blazinhead89 said:
My Prediction? Final Fantasy XIII (PS3) sales will in Japan ( Excluding NA+EU sales ) , be greater than Final Fantasy XIII Xbox 360 Total worldwide sales (NA+EU). I have already agreed to a bet with Dolla Dolla about this statement. What do you guys think?

 

You have a less than 50/50 shot, imo. You have convinced yourself you have a 100 percent chance to win. I wouldn't have taken that bet.

You've failed to calculate something. 360 owners buy hyped games at a much faster rate than PS3 owners. The 360 has a sick attack rate and despite all odds, software sells like they slapped the word Wii on the box.

So, there is a good chance that a ton of 360 owners are gonna pick this game up, and numbers for the 360 worldwide are increasing a lot faster than numbers for the PS3 in Japan.

Your bet should have been, "The PS3 will sell more copies worldwide than the 360."

Hell, the PS3 might even outsell the 360 by that time in others and america. However, you are taking a significant chance with the way the bet stands now. Again, PS3 sales are moving slow in Japan. The relative increase is very small compared to the increase of the 360 in Others and America. If the game released today, the 360 would certainly sell more in Others/America considering there are only 2.3 million PS3's in Japan total, going against about 20 million 360's with rabid software purchasers in Others and America.

You're win is banking on FFXIII being a huge hardware seller, the PS3's userbase significantly increasing in the next year in Japan, and FFXIII having at least a 50 percent attach rate to current owners.

 

1st off I have not said anywhere im 100% gonna win ( putting words in my mouth). Secondly once Final Fantasy XIII Comes out in Japan, The Japan will have a really big reason to go out and buy a PS3. Thirdly No, let me say again, NO, Xbox 360 JRPG has hit the Million mark WW IIRC, and yet loads of people say how amazing LO, Eternal Sonata etc are. If The PS3 had these games they would have sold better than 360 version because PS3 JRPG demographic are crying out for a decent JRPG ( Fuck you Enchanted Arms), And as you know Whats the Xbox 360 Top selling games ( Halo 3 shooter, Gow shooter, COD4 shooter, ), but yet you have these great JRPGs on your system that struggle to sell a Million??? As I said once before once PS3 JRPGs start coming we will see PS3 JRPG demographic >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Xbox 360 JRPG demographic. That is my reason Why i think the OP.

I've underlined the section that I have an issue with. Yes, Halo 3, Gears of War and Call of Duty 4 are some of the best selling games on the system. That's a given. You go on to state that the "great" JRPGs on the 360 struggle to sell a million. My beef is this: No matter what anyone wants to say, there are no JRPGs on the Xbox 360 that are anywhere near the quality of the three shooters you mentioned. Lost Odyssey would be the closest to "great", and even it isn't really that good. It's average (IMO). If a really "awesome" JRPG came out on the 360 (eg. FF13), I'm sure it wouldn't have a hard time selling quite a bit over a million or two. I'm pretty sure that even Tales of Vesperia is going to do over a million in sales worldwide. You just can't compare the quality of game being put out between the three that you mentioned and the mediocre JRPG segment that is currently available in NA/others.

 


lol, sorry I ment "Great", as in 360 fans callinb it great, but still I think Those "Great", JRPGs would sell better on PS3, and Super Hyped ones will sell amazing

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blazinhead89 on 13 August 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:

Which do you believe will be the case?

 

A) FF 360 will be the least selling (3D) FF in NA+Other. FF Ps3 will be the a little higher than average in Japan.

B) FF Ps3 will be among the best selling  in Japan, FF 360 will be among the medium selling FF's in NA+Others

 

I'm just asking to know. I believe your prediction is correct.

I also believe that FF Ps3 in Japan will > FF Ps3 NA+Others.


lol, Your confused Read the OP Again ^_^

De85 on 13 August 2008
blazinhead89 said:
De85 said:

FF XII sold 2.42 million in Japan on a userbase of around 20 million. Just to put things in perspective. I think when all is said and done there are going to be a lot of disappointed people in this thread.

 

And yet FFX Sold 3.02 Million in Japan alone on a far smaller userbase ( about 4-5 Million IIRC)

 

Given SE's current trend of releasing sequels and spinoffs for quick cash-ins I see very little indication of FF XIII being a return to form quality-wise.  It's not even out yet but already has two spinoff s of its own. 

As for FF X's sales, PS3 won't be anywhere near even 4 million in Japan when XIII releases.  I'm going to go out on a limb and predict max lifetime sales of 2 million for FFXIII in Japan.  If it were on the Wii then the sky's the limit, but it's not.



pearljammer on 13 August 2008
De85 said:
blazinhead89 said:
De85 said:

FF XII sold 2.42 million in Japan on a userbase of around 20 million. Just to put things in perspective. I think when all is said and done there are going to be a lot of disappointed people in this thread.

 

And yet FFX Sold 3.02 Million in Japan alone on a far smaller userbase ( about 4-5 Million IIRC)

 

Given SE's current trend of releasing sequels and spinoffs for quick cash-ins I see very little indication of FF XIII being a return to form quality-wise.  It's not even out yet but already has two spinoff s of its own. 

As for FF X's sales, PS3 won't be anywhere near even 4 million in Japan when XIII releases.  I'm going to go out on a limb and predict max lifetime sales of 2 million for FFXIII in Japan.  If it were on the Wii then the sky's the limit, but it's not.

Yes, there are two spinoffs already, but are they not being developed by completely different teams and in no way affecting the development of one another? I really am unsure. I know Vs and XIII are, but not Agito.

I also think userbase will have little bearing on how much this game will sell in Japan. The game will undobtedly be a system seller there.

@OP As for the bet, I don't know. I'd likely side with Dolla Dolla but I think you certainly have a chance of winning.



De85 on 13 August 2008
De85 said:
blazinhead89 said:
De85 said:

FF XII sold 2.42 million in Japan on a userbase of around 20 million. Just to put things in perspective. I think when all is said and done there are going to be a lot of disappointed people in this thread.

 

And yet FFX Sold 3.02 Million in Japan alone on a far smaller userbase ( about 4-5 Million IIRC)

 

Given SE's current trend of releasing sequels and spinoffs for quick cash-ins I see very little indication of FF XIII being a return to form quality-wise. It's not even out yet but already has two spinoff s of its own.

As for FF X's sales, PS3 won't be anywhere near even 4 million in Japan when XIII releases. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict max lifetime sales of 2 million for FFXIII in Japan. If it were on the Wii then the sky's the limit, but it's not.

After actual analysis with the numbers I've got some revisions to my prediction.


PS2 userbase in Japan at FFX launch = 5.1 million, 76% of FFX sales occurred within 1 month of release, attaching at 44.59%

Following current trends the PS3 will have sold 4.1 million in Japan at the end of next year. If FFXIII trends similarly to X then it will sell 1.83 million in its first month, and go on to top out at around 2.41 million. That's more than my initial prediction, but I still think it's easily possible for the 360 to move more than 2.5 million copies of a huge title like FF combining the sales of two vastly larger regions. I would stilll take Dollas side of that bet.

Actual numbers may vary, in either direction based on reviews, demos, etc... Take from this what you will.

 



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Skeeuk on 13 August 2008

ff13 release in japan will catapault ps3 over there, i predict huge sales for the japanese game. ff13 on 360 wont be in japan.

by the time ff13 is released in west(early 2010 my estimate) ps3 will be at a huge install base compared to what it is now. its not going to forever stay at £299 you know!

ff13 will sell much more copies on ps3 than 360, i think everyone agrees to that, the the biggest point is, that square them selfs have said that ps3 version wont be flinked down due to multiplat status - so looking at both versions the ps3 version will be the (as square intended version)

but 360 fans should be happy that they will have the game.

i will buy this game on ps3 as will majority.



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steverhcp02 on 13 August 2008
De85 said:

FF XII sold 2.42 million in Japan on a userbase of around 20 million. Just to put things in perspective. I think when all is said and done there are going to be a lot of disappointed people in this thread.

 

please. Anyone following sequals or carry over franchises to new systems knows that past generation userbases need to go out the window.

Devil May Cry 3 to 4 in japan.

Metal Gear Solid 2 or 3 to 4 in japan

Then we can compare Final Fantasy X to Final Fantasy XII......people get crazy hyped for new generation favorites and it perks sales in such a way using install base is tricky and not even worth it.




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Oyvoyvoyv on 13 August 2008
blazinhead89 said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:

Which do you believe will be the case?

 

A) FF 360 will be the least selling (3D) FF in NA+Other. FF Ps3 will be the a little higher than average in Japan.

B) FF Ps3 will be among the best selling  in Japan, FF 360 will be among the medium selling FF's in NA+Others

 

I'm just asking to know. I believe your prediction is correct.

I also believe that FF Ps3 in Japan will > FF Ps3 NA+Others.

 

lol, Your confused Read the OP Again ^_^

 

 No, I asked whether you believe A or B is what is going to happen. Both mean that FF Ps3 Japan outsells FF 360. I'm just interested in knowing how the sales are split area to area. A, or B.



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De85 on 13 August 2008
steverhcp02 said:
De85 said:

FF XII sold 2.42 million in Japan on a userbase of around 20 million. Just to put things in perspective. I think when all is said and done there are going to be a lot of disappointed people in this thread.

 

please. Anyone following sequals or carry over franchises to new systems knows that past generation userbases need to go out the window.

Devil May Cry 3 to 4 in japan.

Metal Gear Solid 2 or 3 to 4 in japan

Then we can compare Final Fantasy X to Final Fantasy XII......people get crazy hyped for new generation favorites and it perks sales in such a way using install base is tricky and not even worth it.

 

I understand the limitations of using past trends to predict the future, but it's the only thing for which we have hard data so it's the only thing we can really use, unless you trust fanboy "hunches," which I personally don't.

I did note at the end of my last post that there could be any one of a number of factors that could swing the final totals in either direction.  The analysis is just a jumping off point.



steverhcp02 on 13 August 2008
De85 said:
steverhcp02 said:
De85 said:

FF XII sold 2.42 million in Japan on a userbase of around 20 million. Just to put things in perspective. I think when all is said and done there are going to be a lot of disappointed people in this thread.

 

please. Anyone following sequals or carry over franchises to new systems knows that past generation userbases need to go out the window.

Devil May Cry 3 to 4 in japan.

Metal Gear Solid 2 or 3 to 4 in japan

Then we can compare Final Fantasy X to Final Fantasy XII......people get crazy hyped for new generation favorites and it perks sales in such a way using install base is tricky and not even worth it.

 

I understand the limitations of using past trends to predict the future, but it's the only thing for which we have hard data so it's the only thing we can really use, unless you trust fanboy "hunches," which I personally don't.

I did note at the end of my last post that there could be any one of a number of factors that could swing the final totals in either direction. The analysis is just a jumping off point.

 

no. its really not a jumping off point when the only substance is whats flawed to begin with. You cant admit the trends dont fit and then use that very trend for "analysis" with any credibility. Proven franchises do NOT suffer from lack of install base when jumping new generations. When discussing new IP's its a fair judgement imo and i it would take more research which i dont care to do. But while analyzing proven franchises making a jump to new systems, install base has been irrelavent damn near everytime in regards to sales....ESPECIALLY Final Fantasy as shown with X's sales compared to 8 and 9, hell even 7 and in comparison to XII as well.

The only major exception is GT5P in japan in comparison to GT4P but given th ePS2 to PS3 install base and sales combined for Europe and Japan overall sales still fit the trend of first gen franchises not suffering.




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