WhileI agree the PS3 is a more likely 2nd place than the 360, the 360 definately has a much better chance of 2nd than the PS3 has of 1st.

Here are my chances.
Wii 1st - 95%
Wii 2nd - 4.5%
Wii 3rd - 0.5%

PS3 1st - 4%
PS3 2nd - 65%
PS3 3rd - 31%

360 1st - 0.5% (would take some kind of miracle)
360 2nd - 30.5%
360 3rd - 68.5%

If you mean the exception of being "good 3rd party games that make a profit" you might be right.

However, I have a feeling even the bad shovelware for the Wii probably makes a profit or breaks even. Not high profile shovelware that makes millions like Carnival Games, but even crap like Gingerbread Men.

I mentioned that earlier, most of the third parties that made money on the Wii would not be mentioned in a kind manner in the Nintendo forum.

There is one thing for sure. There hasn't been any big budget bombs on the Wii, like there are nearly every week on a HD console. Braid will probably be in the negative for a while, for instance, and it's one of the better games, with great reviews. Imagine how much money Haze lost.

Its Ironic that the reason why the Wii hasn't had many great original games yet is because Publishers are "risk averse" and they stick with what they know. Hence the reason for sequels and cookie cutter games. The market doesn't reward innovation typically, if it did - we would see a whole lot more original IPs/Gameplay styles.

I think the percentages are broken though.

For example, when I have 99% to hit. I missed anywhere from 5 to 10 times within 100 hits.

So, it can't be 99%, because I didn't miss only once.

False logic.

3rd parties haven't put a AAA effort on Wii to combat Nintendo directly so how exactly is Nintendo crushing non-existant efforts?

Sounds me like you are assuming the only profitable path for 3rd parties is are low budget casual oriented titles.   I'm not saying you aren't correct but what high budget efforts do we have to compare that with?  None.   They haven't even tried yet so why assume it's 'yi luan tou shi'? - inevitable failure.

To me it shows an open door for 3rd parties.  A blue oecean in a blue oecean if you will.  An untapped market of potential.  If 3rd parties are scared of high budget titles on Wii against Nintendo then don't make a bigh budget Mario clone or high budget kart game.

Huh? hitting what.

I can see it isn't 99% if you don't hit something 99 out of 100, whoever said it would be.

I don't agree at all. 19 of those 36, including 10 of the top charting 12 Wii/DS titles are Nintendo-published games. And you can add one more in each of those categories for Sega-developed Sonic and Mario, which, of course, has Mario in the title. Take out the power of Activision/guitar Hero brand name and you get not a lot else.

You have Carnival Games, a Wii-sports ripoff and Ubisoft's wierdly popular Imagine games. and that's about it for that top 50. What in there inspires any non-superpowers (i.e. NOT E.A./Ubi/Activision) to actually go crazy in Nintendo development. They are always going to get crushed by the first party titles. Yes, they can make money on shovelware, but it just doesn't seem like good business right now to invest a lot of cash into developing for Nintendo platforms if you are a smaller publisher - again, other than cheapie ports or shovelware games.

It's easy to look at all the DS and Wii games and have your opinion, but if you really look at it, it shows another story for the 3rd parties.