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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 1,000,000: Hmm, somebody's been reading my predictions

johnlucas on 11 August 2008

So analysts have been lurking the VGChartz forums eh?

Listen to this report y'all:

From Gamasutra.com — Analysts: 'Hardware Storm' Could See Wii Sales Approach 1M Per Month

(yes I've finally figured out how to work this forum style a little better now. Look words for links and everything)

That sounds very very familiar to something I said here a few months ago...

Nintendo Wii will see regular 1,000,000 per month sales in U.S.
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=27011

And even though I've been largely absent lately I've been lurking every now and again hearing people saying my 4.1 million a month Wii production prediction fell flat.

Not so fast. A quote from that 4.1 million per month thread...

4.1 — Nintendo's number to remember
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=17683

"4.1" is the numeral in front of the word "million" that Nintendo will end up producing for Wiis per month worldwide within this year.

Another quote:

This figure or its quarterly revisions will be able to be broken up into 12 pieces which will most likely see 4.1 million per month as the quotient.

It's a no-brainer. This system is almost 2 years old and still under launch fever. Too many want it. Too many good games are on it. And too many miss out. Nintendo is not one to sleep on such an opportunity and they will deliver. 60 million is coming.

I think now with experience to make mass production without waste they can better handle getting more systems out.
It will only create new demand and put them back at square one but if you thought the last two Christmas seasons were something you watch out for this one. The numbers that will come out of Nintendo will make your stomach turn over.

The analysts are trying to 'get hep' trying to bite my style. Craig Mack said you jockin' my style, you jockin' my style boy, ya jockin' MY style! Analysts stop jockin' my style, you know you can't touch the flav.

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

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bdbdbd on 11 August 2008

Long time no see!

Don't take too much credit, the million a month for NA was a no-brainer even back then. Besides, the supply isn't at that level yet.

The 4,1M prediction is a little too bold. 3M next FY seems more plausible.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

johnlucas on 11 August 2008
bdbdbd said:
Long time no see!

Don't take too much credit, the million a month for NA was a no-brainer even back then. Besides, the supply isn't at that level yet.

The 4,1M prediction is a little too bold. 3M next FY seems more plausible.

Yeah I wish I put that down earlier. I had been away so long & that was one of my big to-dos so I finally put it down for the record. Late getting that one out there.

Hey you know me, bdbdbd. If it ain't bold, it ain't me.

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

kingofwale on 11 August 2008

Didn't you also predicted 500 million Wii sold in lifetime?

Well, the thing about prediction is... you can't pick and choose which one. Heck, any idiot can make a bunch of them and have one hit the target by luck.



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
Gamerace on 11 August 2008

Long time no hear JL.

1m I agree with, and really isn't much of a stretch.

Doesn't look like we'll see 4.1m avg for '09. Maybe in '10 but even that seems unlikely without further stimulus. Where I am Wii have been readily available in stores since April, not quite meeting demand but not far from it either.



 

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johnlucas on 11 August 2008
kingofwale said:
Didn't you also predicted 500 million Wii sold in lifetime?

Well, the thing about prediction is... you can't pick and choose which one. Heck, any idiot can make a bunch of them and have one hit the target by luck.

Yes I did and I still stand by that.

That is the potential maximum number. The exact minimum is 240,000,000. That is guaranteed so long as the end of the world doesn't come before it.

I've been gone a long time and it's time for me to check the score on old predictions I made. Yeah yeah I know MGS4 fell completely flat. Sony at last minute turned PS3 around and prevented that from coming true, good for them. The way they were headed it may have ended up much like Final Fantasy XIII on 360.

I'll take my lumps when I'm wrong but I'll stand proudly when I make a call against all odds and get proven right.

I still stand by 60 million Wiis worldwide in 2008 until January 1, 2009 proves otherwise.

John Lucas

 



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

bdbdbd on 11 August 2008

Haha, i think we all know you. Besides, if everyone isn't arguing against you, you're out of touch.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

Kenology on 11 August 2008

Been a while, johnlucas.



tuoyo on 11 August 2008

John Lucas. Yaaaaay!!!



Biggest Pikmin Fan on VGChartz I was chosen by default due to voting irregularities

Super Smash Brawl Code 1762-4158-5677 Send me a message if you want to receive a beat down

 

kirby007 on 11 August 2008

Any new great predictions on the horizon?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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