I will be close. The PS2 is still selling very well, and a price drop to $99 will boost sales even more.

As long as the Wii is still for sale for cheap for a few years after the Wii 2 launches, i think it will pass it.

As much as I love my Wii I really don't think it will. My main argument for coming to this conclusion is that there are two major factors that gives the PS2 a long life span in terms of console sales that the Wii lacks.

Firstly, as I think someone mentioned before in this thread, the ps2 was not the most well built of consoles and people will have to buy new ones to replaces the broken ones far more than they will with the Wii. I know I have had to buy two new ones myself at least.

Secondly, the Wii is very small. A lot of people were really inclined to buy one of the slimmer ps2's because there was a significant difference between the large and heavy and bulky ps2's and the new slim one. Because the Wii is already small and light I cannot see an even smaller and lighter one having the same effect or even how much smaller a Wii can realistically get.

TBH I would consider it much more successful if it undersold the PS2 because of these reasons.

Only time will tell. It depends on how long the wii is on the market, how long the casual/non-gamer interest remains and how many wiis the nintendocore end up buying.
I haven't heard of any problem with the wii hardware yet but lenses may die and people will need replacements if the wii is around that long.

mmm, still got to sell another 100 mill. unlikely but possible. We will have to see when the slow down starts to truly have an idea

Wii has only sold 30 million consoles in two years. Nintendo does not tend to keep a consoles life span running long. Based upon SNES, N64 and GameCube. all of those consoles had lifespans of around 5 or 6 years each. New Ninty console will probably appear in a few years time.

I would say almost certainly no for two primary reasons.

First the Wii has limited progress on the PS2 because the PS2 keeps selling tons especially during the holidays. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the PS2 hit 200 million after a drop to 99 dollars (and worldwide equivalent). I don't see the PS2 truly dying out until about 2010 or 2011. Yes the Wii sales advantage over the PS2 will increase during that time, but it has to make up more ground then any console besides the PS2 has ever sold. It will possibly pass up the PS1, but the PS2 is quite simply out of reach given the Wii's tech.

The second reason is because Nintendo likes to sell hardware at a profit, and to the same base. Nintendo will want to make a Wii 2 in the next few years just like the DS followed the GBA somewhat closely. It will probably be backwards compatible, the same 200 something dollars, and will restart the cycle. Some people might say "no the wouldn't do this if they're in first place!" but...yes, they will, why not? If you sell 100 million of something once, why let that trickle down to nothing as competitors innovate over you? Didn't they say "we will be the next big thing" like 10 times in their E3 show? They will almost certainly be the first to release a new console and Wii sales will plummet in favor of Wii 2 sales (faster then PS2 sales did for PS3s since the Nintendo consoles are so cheap even initially).

The only real impairment to releasing a new console is the launch cost and subsidizing hardware. Nintendo will probably wait until the stuff that makes the PS3 and 360 expensive is cheap, then release a machine with the relative power of the 360 for the same price as the Wii (or less) and turn a profit from day one on the sales. My guess is 2011 launch, 2010 announcement.

Sorry but 2 years since Wii's launch hasn't past yet. ALso didn't I hear in this thread that the PS2 was at 15mln at this period in it life? Also the NES and SNES both lasted after sucessors so the Wii could last the same length.

yes it will, and it will go a lot higher....

No dont think it will.

Just as a thought, the Wii may live for far longer than most people expect ...

I'm a firm believer that Nintendo will work on shrinking the Gekko/Broadway and the Flipper/Hollywood processors so that they can fit them on one chip in order to reduce the manufacturing cost of the Wii and to include them in a future handheld system; the handheld system may not be running at the same clock speed as the Wii, but it shouldn't need to be at that much lower than the Wii with how low the power requirements of the Wii already are. This system will (most likely) be released in 2010 as the replacement for the Nintendo DS.

With how popular the Wii is, if this handheld system is even close to the popularity of the DS or GBA, the architecture of the Wii will continue to be the most popular gaming hardware from 2010 until 2016 (at the earliest); at the same time it should be (fairly) easy to maintain backwards compatibility with Wii hardware regardless of whether you continue forward with the same architecture due to how low performance the system is compared to the hardware that will be available for its successor.

Even with the massive growth in the industry, most game developers simply can not afford to put the resources towards game development that the HD consoles currently require (and next generation consoles will require) and be successful companies. Many of these developers will hold out as long as they can before jumping to the next generation.

The last consideration is consumers. The market for a videogame system that is $75 (or less) in both the developed and developing world is far larger than most people probably suspect. By the time 2011 rolls around, Nintendo will easily be able to manufacture the Wii at a low enough cost to sell it for a tiny price and will have a massive library of games which have already broken even (and turned a healthy profit) which can be sold for $20 (or less).

Basically, with how widespread the hardware for the Wii will be, how low the development costs are, and its ability to sell at a lower price than any previous console it is possible that the Wii will still see regular software releases 10 years (or more) after it is released.