I would say almost certainly no for two primary reasons.
First the Wii has limited progress on the PS2 because the PS2 keeps selling tons especially during the holidays. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the PS2 hit 200 million after a drop to 99 dollars (and worldwide equivalent). I don't see the PS2 truly dying out until about 2010 or 2011. Yes the Wii sales advantage over the PS2 will increase during that time, but it has to make up more ground then any console besides the PS2 has ever sold. It will possibly pass up the PS1, but the PS2 is quite simply out of reach given the Wii's tech.
The second reason is because Nintendo likes to sell hardware at a profit, and to the same base. Nintendo will want to make a Wii 2 in the next few years just like the DS followed the GBA somewhat closely. It will probably be backwards compatible, the same 200 something dollars, and will restart the cycle. Some people might say "no the wouldn't do this if they're in first place!" but...yes, they will, why not? If you sell 100 million of something once, why let that trickle down to nothing as competitors innovate over you? Didn't they say "we will be the next big thing" like 10 times in their E3 show? They will almost certainly be the first to release a new console and Wii sales will plummet in favor of Wii 2 sales (faster then PS2 sales did for PS3s since the Nintendo consoles are so cheap even initially).
The only real impairment to releasing a new console is the launch cost and subsidizing hardware. Nintendo will probably wait until the stuff that makes the PS3 and 360 expensive is cheap, then release a machine with the relative power of the 360 for the same price as the Wii (or less) and turn a profit from day one on the sales. My guess is 2011 launch, 2010 announcement.
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